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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (27014)	6/14/2000 2:38:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68258

Posted this privately on the weekend. Repeating as it shouild be of general interest. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Off the top of my head ( I will have to confirm later when I have more time): Passive Optical Components: JDSU, SDLI, NUFO, AVNX, NT, LU GLW,ADCT, ALA, SPLI, APAT (last two minor players due to capacity, low visiblity on Wall Street) Fiber Cable: LU, GLW, OCCF, STKR, FBCE (Note single mode cable demand versus capacity now in balance as per GLW CC) Active Components: ETEK, SDLI, ALA, ADCT, NT, LU(now with ORTL), MRVC Submarine System Components: ALA, SDLI Light Chips (MEM/MEM like systems): BKHM, LPTHA D-WDM Long Haul Systems: LU, NT, CIEN D-WDM Metro: SCMR, FIBR(minor player), ONIS, Chromatis, CIEN, MRVC (development only) >>2. What is the outlook for metro-DWDM? >>Prospects are positive, but size and timing of growth >>uncertain Confirms what I have heard on the CC's. Cost does not justify the transistion. Business segment demand must accelerate in order for greater deployment to happen. >>3. How quickly are we moving towards IP over DWDM? >>Not as quickly as many may think That is a little surprising as the only reason to move is to have greater capacity in order to eliminate the quality of service issues that IP switching versus ATM pose. >>4. What is the future for ATM, SDH and SONET in an >>IP/DWDM environment? >>These older technologies should continue to see good >>growth for the short to medium term at least Confirms what TLAB's has been saying. >> What is the likely impact of system-in-a-box? >>Devices combining optical and data networking are coming >>to market, and both large and small companies will have >>room. Not as fast as one would expect. All optical networks with true optical routers at the core are 3 to 5 years away according to AMCC. Even then there will be non-optical solutions at the edges of the system. >>7. What is the likely impact of shortening lead times? >>Missing a cycle or having the wrong product available can >>erode marketshare and revenues; but recovery can be quick. Agreed. >>8. What is the impact of current shortages in components >>and how long will it last? >>Shortages are slowing network build and spurring new >>technologies; demand to outstrip supply for some time to >>come. Indications are some components could in shortage for the next two years(can't remember the CC). >>10. What are the prospects for further consolidation in >>the components industry? >>More consolidation is in store, and possible partial >>flotations of optics businesses Already seeing this, spin off of METHA.