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To: John Pitera who wrote (1327)6/14/2000 5:15:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Respond to of 2850
 
Hello John,

"...and must hope that cable is the last mile winner in the broadband rollout to the customer."

This is one of the biggest problems in the expectation that AT&T will be a winner in these areas. There's a lot of concern that people will not give up their copper wires and free TV for what AT&T is offering....and that is a significant concern for earnings as these markets go forward.

But so many problems still stand in the way of providing constant, high-reliability phone service over the cable systems for which AT&T spent so much money that I'm beginning to wonder if the company will ever unravel that one. As opposed to its forecast of two million cable-telephony customers by the end of this year, I doubt that AT&T will have 500,000. Maybe not even 400,000. Not good.

That article you presented captures everything wrong with AT&T at this juncture. I don't know much about the technical problems of doing what T wants over cable, and if that persons knowledgable enough to make that statement. But.., it's a significant concern and certainly not a friendly look at this old giant.

I suspect at these prices AT&T is worth a light load of shares, and if they drag themselves into further problems under the weight of a slow public move towards cable and wireless, they should become a take over prospect.

Thank You for that read...?

Chip



To: John Pitera who wrote (1327)6/14/2000 5:55:00 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2850
 
I guess that one gauge of how the market views T's strategy is to look at BRCM, TERN and CMTO and other related companies. Though it is kinda hard to tell after the past two months where everything has been beaten down.

I would expect LD to be offered free eventually and this would be one of the major enticements that T would have to get the consumer on their cable modem services. And since most customers will have a set top box anyway for cable, and if T ships those boxes with an analog voice port that is enabled, they may be able to simply sneak their way into the market.

I have always hated shared bandwidth, which is the case with cable modems, so this would be an issue for me (not to mention security).