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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (14458)	6/15/2000 5:47:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk: re; <"Ask Janet to take a break...and go look at the refineries that conveniently blow up so they can raise prices"> So tell us specifically what you are accusing the oil companies of here. And while you're at it, why not corroberate that accusation. P

To: Kirk © who wrote (14458)	6/15/2000 6:11:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk: Re: "Well, salaries are up 3 or 4 x since then and we are worried about $32 oil? I guess since China didn't invade Taiwan some have to find other reasons to fear a major recession." An investor/trader should always analyze potential problems before making decisions. Re:"Me, I see good times ahead." Could be. As I said, energy problems are unpredictable as to scope and duration. Reading your posts over time suggests to me that you would see good times ahead pretty much no matter what came down the pike. Understandably, you have chosen this disposition because it fits you long term investing style. But I would not find fault with others for keeping their eyes open. These are not the actions of chronic worriers; rather, they are the actions of prudent people who seek information before making decisions. Re: "Ask Janet to take a break on Billy and go look at the refineries that conveniently blow up so they can raise prices." Boy, Kirk, if this is true, I see good times ahead <g>.

To: Kirk © who wrote (14458)	6/15/2000 6:12:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Ignore post. Duplicate (eom).

To: Kirk © who wrote (14458)	6/16/2000 5:58:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

I think you're confusing a high price of gasoline with inflation. A high price of gasoline does not cause inflation, but a rising cost of gasoline does. You need not look any further than the EU, which has a phenomenally high price of gasoline but a lower rate of inflation the we do see this. The two things which are helpful to think about when you ask yourself, "Do changes in gasoline prices influence inflation" are these; 1) the dependency of the economy on gasoline, and 2) the rate at which gasoline is inflating. The easiest way to address 1 is by comparing the per capita consumption of gasoline. Since we lead all other economies in this number by a significant margin, it takes no great step to realize that this economy, more than any other, will be affected by a rising price of crude and its products. The rate at which gasoline inflates is also important because a slow pace of inflation will lead to efficiencies in its use, curtailing demand. But I doubt if they'll be a big decrease in commuted miles/citizen/day any time soon, even if gasoline breeches $2 everywhere. They'll just be a further slowing in consumer demand and higher manufacturing, transportation, food, and energy costs. BTW, have you considered the consequence of the fed lowering rates on the price of oil? A view from the inside. simmonsco-intl.com