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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (44418)	6/15/2000 3:46:00 AM
From: Rick_Barry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

A friend knows someone working at Intel saying that he is working on DDR because rmbs architecture is DIFFICULT to implement. Anyway, I give up on discussing about rmbs technology. All i know it's a momentum stock and i am tired of its volatity. Time to say goodbye rambus for a good sleep, lots of confusing news and uncertainties.

To: Bilow who wrote (44418)	6/15/2000 7:56:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Bilow, RE: Since late last year, the chance RDRAM taking over has been zero. But assuming it did, RMBS would be a decent buy at its current price. The memory industry makes $30 billion of memory per year. 1% of that would be $300 million, and double that to include memory controllers, say $0.6 billion per year. RMBS would be quite a bargain at the current price if that were to occur. RMBS market cap as of the close yesterday was $22,001mm. Making the extreme assumption that RMBS has no expenses and needs to make zero investment in R&D so that the $600mm in revenues flow straight to the bottom line give RMBS after tax revenues of $420mm if you assume a generous 30% tax rate. That gives you a PE in excess of 50. And that is using every single assumption in RMBS' favor. Hardly 'quite a bargain'.

To: Bilow who wrote (44418)	6/15/2000 6:00:00 PM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Carl, You have spent much time going into the technical deficiencies of Rambus technology. I can understand how a technologically inferior/unworkable product can fail. However, I can't reconcile this statement of yours: "At one time it had some sort of a chance, but that was before the Camino delay last Nov/Dec." If the technology is so bad, how did it ever have a chance. Either it is sound or it isn't. Either DDR is better or it ain't. I can see how the camino delay could put earnings schedule back a couple of quarters, but not how it could change the endgame. Intel is still supporting, RDRAM is coming down in both cost and price, willamette is on the way, RAM prices are going up, RDRAM X4 is on the way and now it seems DDR is having problems getting into PC chipsets which mean it is v. likely to miss the busy Q4 this year.