Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (26363)	6/15/2000 12:45:00 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

re: QCOM >>Brokerage Chase H&Q early Thursday said it set a $50-per-share price target<< Well, that's a bit of a difference from the $250 target heard elsewhere. I recall a post here a while back in which someone commented that QCOM and JDSU had the same market cap. Right now, QCOM has just about half the market cap of JDSU. Recently, when Citrix stumbled some assessed its non-gorilla aspects and decided it was wise to sell. Is the situation with QCOM similar? Or, might this be one of those gut-wrenching times cited in the manual, where the authors advocate doubling up? From TRFM: pg. 183: "it is important to note that even the most successful gorillas will eventually underperform investor expectations and take a hit in their stock prices. As the stock market catches on to the gorilla advantage, investors continue to incorporate higher expectations into the stock price, until any error in execution causes a shortfall. This is to be expected. These moments of shortfall, however, far from being times to sell gorilla stock, can be good times to buy more of it - if you believe the dynamics of the gorilla's advantage have not materially changed..." pg. 204: the example is Oracle reporting a loss in 1990 - "The principles of the gorilla game suggest that internal problems will work themselves out, and that far from selling on a gorilla stumble, you should buy. Bravely, you step up to the bar and double your stake in Oracle (at roughly half the previous quarter's price)." Anyone stepping up? StockHawk

To: Eric L who wrote (26363)	6/15/2000 1:30:00 PM
From: solihull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: CDMA Rolling Thunder Eric, this opinion confirms what most here already know: "Expect GSM markets to upgrade services via CDMA deployments in new UMTS spectrum. CDMA is expected to grow as a whole at 68%, analysts have them modeled at 50%. CDMA subscribers could grow at a 5 year CAGR rate of 68%. There is room for numbers to grow based on the expected growth rates. In 2003, cdmaOne subscribers should be about 95% of total CDMA subscribers. "The CDMA market may grow faster than expected and expect that GSM operators that are looking to upgrade but are without new spectrum, would build their network based on CDMA. CDMA 1X will reach the US market end of 2000. Trials have already been made with Sprint and Lucent. That deployment will start with SK Telecom in Korea end of 2000, followed by KDDI in Japan, and Sprint and Verizon in the USA. QCOM is a key and dominant leader in the cdmaOne market and anticipate them to be a participant in the WCDMA market and receive royalties from this. Expect CDMA to be deployed in more markets at a faster rate. This is because GSM will not be cost effective in the long term as it would not have a good evolution to lower network economics (EDGE allows faster data speeds, but not lower economics). Therefore, GSM carriers will push their W-CDMA roll out faster than earlier expected. The 800 MHz markets will move towards CDMA 1X and GSM markets (where UMTS spectrum is given away) will move to W-CDMA. Although Qualcomm will lose market share with W-CDMA vis-a-vis cdmaOne, they will be in a enviable position to supply chips to the CDMA market for both W-CDMA and cdmaOne. Approximately, 14 manufacturers have signed with QUALCOMM for 3G which covers both CDMA and W-CDMA.The company has cross license with Motorola and Ericsson on 3G. The company's strategy is to acquire the technology themselves and we believe that this will happen within the next 12 months. Once this is attained, we believe that the Company would be in a position to produce multi-mode chips and capture about 40-50% of the WCDMA market. W-CDMA will not be deployed in any other spectrum other than UMTS. As for the 800,900,1800, and 1900 MHz bands, operators who wants 3G service level but does not have the UMTS spectrum, would need to go to CDMA 1X. This progression would depend on how many networks will need to up grade to CDMA and how many networks will move up to the UMTS spectrum." God bless the longs. John