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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (26378)	6/15/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

This is what I think is going on 1. Does anyone really believe that Korean carriers are going to let their new subscriber growth fall off a cliff after investing billions into their systems and about to invest a few more bil to upgrade to 1X. I think not. They have no choice but to keep signing on new subscribers as fast as they can and will find an alternate way to do it. 2. China is basically taking the same path as the U.S. I think Q figured that the U.S. and China would follow the IS95 abc's upgrades as Korea and Japan did. Since they are now electing to go directly from 95a to 1X it means they by-passed GO and Q doesn't get to collect it's $200 till next yr. when 1X starts being installed. We lost this yr in the transition from IS95 to 1X. 3. I doubt G* will go up in smoke ala Iridium. 4. The only thing that matters are the numbers. How many new licencees did they sign up, how many new carriers have decided to build out with CDMA, how many new CDMA subscribers are there and lastly how many ASICS were sold and HOW many will be sold in the future. Everything else is noise. Keep the earmuffs on until the numbers come out on july 19th. Hope we survive the blitzkrieg of FUD until then. 100@diggingmyfoxholenow

To: tekboy who wrote (26378)	6/15/2000 4:48:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

tekboy: Thanks for the analysis. The comparison between the recent Citrix and Qualcomm hits is helpful in providing counterpoint in understanding what is happening with Qualcomm. For you and others interested here is a clip from the Q "Buy" thread which is a clip from Raging Bull. Seems to fit with Qualcomm's usual style of Investor Relations, but no guarantees on accuracy of reporting. To: Craig Schilling who started this subject From: Labrador Thursday, Jun 15, 2000 4:28 PM ET Reply # of 74007 Great Post from Raging Bull TAKEN FROM: QUALCOMM (QCOM) BY: steter POST NUMBER: 48248 REPLY TO: none Nancy Morby-Senior Manager- QCOM IR- was kind enough to spend a great deal of time with me on the phone, she said I could repeat what we spoke about as long as I was accurate so here it is: In regards to H&Q: Ed Snyder has never been on the Q bandwagon so we know his feeling about the company. In reference to his comments today, she said they think they are way off base and think it is very very sad what he did. She also said that there are Bears and Bulls even in the analyst ranks and both H$Q and Bear Stearns are Bears. In regards to yesterday's Bear Stearns Conference: They spoke once again with Mr. Thornley this morning and he reiterated that in no way did he give any earnings guidance. He was simply going over the potential rewards and risks associated withe the GSTRF situation. They have not, I repeat, not issued any new earnings updates for the remainder of FY2000 and are comfortable with analysts estimates. In regards to this quarter, the estimates are between .27 and .29, they are comfortable with those. Today they actually reviewed each analysts estimates to ensure they were comfortable with them. Nancy also stated that Wall Street know the game that some analysts play, and why they do what they do. Most of the inquiries QCOM is getting is coming from new investors that don't know the real truth about what is going on. Nancy stated that QCOM's management does not go forward with blinder's on and realizes that it can't always be perfect and with clear sailing. She said that this is especially when you are taking a product global, you are dealing with Govt. issues, policies, politics, cultures, etc. In regards to adaptation of CDMA worldwide: Nancy stated that CDMA growth rate kills GSM, but GSM has been around forever. When I told her that our impression of what we have been hearing is that 3g GSM will become WCDMA she agreed, said this was great news for QCOM, and confirmed taht they will get royalites on all forms of CDMA, including WCDMA. I asked her if they were sure of this and she said, yes we are.... In regards to China: China is stil on, our new agreements announced last week should be proof. Why would we want to go ahead and transfer our technology over to them if they we not going forward with CDMA.. Why would we have signed licensing agreements last week with network manufacturers and phone manufacturers. In regards to all the bad press she said: It started when CNBC announced that the U.S. granting PNTR to China would not be good for QCOM and to that they put I.J. on CNBC. Then CNBC said QCOM was not going to be used by China Unicom so they put out the press release last Thursday or Friday saying they would be used. Bottom line, China still on, but there will always be issues. The third thing that upset them is now people saying that QCOM gave downgraded earnings guidance yesterday, which is absolutely not true. In regards to IDCC: The last time Dr. J. was asked this he said something to the tune that there is nothing we see they have that would add any value for us. When I asked her to comment on the stuff we constantly hear about IDCC claiming to have IPR rights on WCDMA she confirmed that QCM will get royalties on WCDMA...period... She also brought up today's announcement between LU and Verizon, who today signed a letter of intent on a 1.5 billion deal, she says this is great news for QCOM, it will be 3GCDMA as in CDMA20001X. Nancy's other comments were mostly about the fact that the people in the know don't worry about the day to day, but the long haul. She said nothing has changed at QCOM and the future is extremely bright in their opinion. She said, name another company with 2billion in assets and virtually no debt. For new investors wanting to learn more about QCOM, Nancy said they have recently updated their website. If you go to IR and click on Press Releases, you can put in a keyword in the search section. You can either use a product like HDR or CDMA or put in China or Korea or whatever and you will get all the Press Releases for that item. Great way for new investors to do DD. She also said for people to listen to what the company says more than others, as they will always be truthful. In closing I thanked her for her time and told her that one of the reasons we love QCOM is for the down to earth, honest, and not overly optomistic but realistic management. She remains very bullish on the company. Hope it helps!!! Stay long and prosper.. ragingbull.com;