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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DownSouth who wrote (26388)	6/15/2000 5:55:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

DownSouth: What is going on now is a fascinating disconnect between the company's fundamentals and market price moves. I try to keep up with the first and ignore the second. But admit that the buffeting by external forces and analysts with a bear agenda make it difficult to ignore price movements. On the fundamentals, the company keeps going ahead strongly. My remark about data is that I see the next strong move will reflect real world data events. But the timetable on the beginning of that is close. Note for example that Verizon will undertake a field trial of 1X which doubles voice capacity and enhances data within a month in Philadelphia. This is under the Lucent contract announced today. On earnings, growth reflecting gains Qualcomm is making in coverage and chips for the next generation of phones and other applications seems very much on track. But as far as prices go, who knows, I don't. Wish you well with what you decide. Best. Cha2

To: DownSouth who wrote (26388)	6/15/2000 6:16:00 PM
From: DaYooper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

struggling with the possibility that Q is dead money Hi Jerry, That very thought was discussed a week or two ago but was quickly discarded as "absurd". More of "coiled spring" no? The problem seems to be that the stock (not the company) is psychologically damaged. Some event will be required to repair this damage, imo. And it needs to be bigger than a solid earnings report with 15.5 million chip sales for Q3. It needs to reassure investors and analysts that the Q has essential 3G CDMA patents or that the Q will see rapidly increasing chip sales. At that point the spring will be uncoiled in a big way - but probably not much until that time. I think we follow the Q so close that we lose sight of the forest for the trees. Just my opinion. But then we're not suppose to time our gorilla investments anyhow. Luckily I cheated some. Good Luck, Jerry. Always lurking. Rory

To: DownSouth who wrote (26388)	6/15/2000 7:32:00 PM
From: pann1128	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

QCOM earnings: Unfortunately I have been much too close to the computer the last few days and this QCOM move has been very painful. I am struggling with the possibility that Q is dead money for the rest of the year or longer. If it is likely to be dead, then I need to make a conscious,reasoned decision about what to do: 1. Sell and diversify 2. Convert to LEAPS 3. Nothing DS, You and the other thread elders are my mentors (even though you could not tell because of my lack of postings). FWIW, I am planning to do nothing. My reasoning is simple: I trust QCOM management more than Snyder who seems to have an axe to grind. Management has repeatedly said they are comfortable with estimates. Looking at their FYQ1 and FYQ2 reports, they shipped 14.5 and 11 million ASICS respectively. In Q2 report, they mentioned that bookings were strong and they expect to exceed the 14.5M ASICS for FYQ3. In mid May they announced shipment of 100M ASICS to date. That number is up from 92M ASICS cumulative in FYQ2. So they had already shipped 8M by middle of the quarter. They will probably do 15M or 16M ASICS this quarter. Now, with 11M ASICS shipped, they earned 26c proforma in FYQ2. They should easily eclipse that in Q3. The only unknown is royalty revenues for Q3. Based on what I am seeing in press releases, they have signed up some new licensees this quarter. Don't know how these license revenues are recognized, but I will be shocked if they don't beat their number. Lastly, given this management's penchant for understatement, they have made some pretty bold projections. I just don't see them not delivering. Selling and being out of the stock is meaningless at these levels. Where else would you get a Gorilla with a nice low PEG ratio (under 1.5?). Converting to LEAPS is tricky, because we don't know where the bottom is. Holding stock will give you more peace of mind. Sorry for the long drawn out response. Probably stating the obvious for most on this thread. However, typing this helped clarify my own rationale for holding <G>. Regards, Piyush

To: DownSouth who wrote (26388)	6/16/2000 12:35:00 AM
From: mtnlady	Respond to of 54805

Not being an avid Q follower as all of you are I feel I have little to add to the Q discussion except perhaps my own personnel feelings. And that is.. 'wow (!) it's starting to look pretty cheap!' I sold my Q out in the 130 range and used the money elsewhere. I only had a relatively small position compared to many of you. But I've started to add Q common and Q calls (oct and maybe some LEAPS next) yesterday and today. I believe Q will hit the 50's and there I plan on really loading up. I picked some up in the high 60's, again some more today in the low 60's. My limit orders are now in the 55 and 50 points. The way I look at it is this.. Q stands, probably, a better chance of doubling my investment than almost any other stock out there. Especially if I can pick it up in the low to mid 50's.

To: DownSouth who wrote (26388)	6/16/2000 10:37:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

DownSouth: While you are thinking and in the cold light of day - re: Globalstar's bankruptcy [sic.]as a drain on Qualcomm. To: Jim Parkinson who wrote (13563) From: Investartist Thursday, Jun 15, 2000 8:51 PM ET Reply # of 13583 Dear Jim Parkinson, Thank you for the very reasoned and intelligent post. I agree with everything you said. In the last week, I have had a dealer say sales were increasing 30% week over week. Another told me that this bankruptcy talk is poppycock, etc. Opening up Carribean will be a big boost. We heard GMPCS say that they could easily sell 5000 phones there for boats. As to minute prices I too have previously stated that I think that the 30% price reductions currently in effect in US until July 15th will become permanent. This was the opinion of one of the sales managers I talked to last week. I don't know that they will become lower because we want to keep a healthy profit margin and Globalstar is a special service that no one else can provide. They will need to determine the proper price for the market I don't know if it is lower but there is a proper equilibrium. I see tremendous potental when data service becomes active. In a conversation I had with George Gilder this year he said that he felt that the really big potential would be realized with data. He feels that the backers of Globalstar realize this and will not be satisfied until all the many potential uses are demonstrated and marketed. This is why in his opinion they will give it any support needed to realize this enormous potential. Sincerely, Investartist P.S. Just today George Gilder posted, reaffirming his belief that Globalstar will succeed and be a "ten bagger or greater". To: Maurice Winn who started this subject From: lramzi Friday, Jun 16, 2000 10:16 AM ET Reply # of 13586 From G. Gilder Telcosm Lounge: re: G* Media Coverage posted to: Tetherless Telecosm poster: Nerve posted: 6/8/00 Coverage of G* in the financial press has generally been neutral at best for several months. Some writers damn with faint praise while making comparisons to Iridium, and others make more direct negative comparisons to Iridium. There are several possible explanations for this; one, in addition to simple herd mentality, is that it is the easiest course for a financial writer. It is very safe and easy to deride Iridium after it has failed, and it takes less effort to lump G* in with Iridium than to actually do some research. In some cases, could media management set the tone? Consider the coverage from Bloomberg: every article I have seen about G* contains the phrase, like a mantra, "...the only satellite-telephone company that hasn't filed for bankruptcy or shut down". Mr. Bloomberg has, to my knowledge, never filed for bankruptcy (but he may shut down at times). I'm sure that another factor is that many of these writers live in and around New York, maintaining a world view that is, shall we say, longitudinally limited. "If I don't need it, and my friends don't need it, then who needs it?" The media and analysts have determined that there is a high probability that G* will fail, and the stock is priced accordingly. Actually, the probability of failure is low. When it becomes clear - perhaps within nine months - to the most ardent detractors that it will not fail, the stock will soar. Louis