To: JohnG who wrote (26400 ) 6/15/2000 7:53:00 PM From: JohnG Respond to of 54805
Fund MAnager contemplates QCOM. JohnG The significance of that development was revealed in an interview with Rod Berry, co-manager of the RS Information Age fund in San Francisco. Berry described Qualcomm's move from around 150 to 200 late last year as the result of "pure hype and speculation, and indiscriminant investing." Nevertheless, the $395 million RS Information Age fund maintained its long-held stake in the company. The decision was based partially on capital gains concerns, Berry said. But also because "at the beginning of the year, with the continued growth of CDMA in the U.S. and Korea, plus new markets in China, there was a much better picture in terms of where the growth going to come from near term and long term," he said. Expansion into China is considered key to Qualcomm's expansion of CDMA beyond its roughly 10% share of the global wireless market. Rival technologies control about 70% of the market. Conversely, in recent days, the fund has shed its Qualcomm stake despite's Berry's long-term bullishness. "Now, it's one of those stories where nobody knows the real answer," the fund manager said. "Anytime you get a stock that has so many question marks, I don't think that it's going to move anytime soon." Perhaps, like many investors, Berry was merely rationalizing when he held the stock late last year and well into 2000. Given the unbridled returns Qualcomm's shares produced in 1999, it's not hard to see how even savvy Wall Street types got a warped sense of reality regarding the stock. Draw your own conclusions. But as former believers bail on Qualcomm, some past skeptics are beginning to get interested. Marc Klee, co-manager of the $1.1 billion John Hancock Technology fund, has long felt investors were "overly enthused" about Qualcomm. But recently the fund initiated a small position in the stock because the decline has taken it back to "reasonable valuations," he said. Following Thursday's drop, Qualcomm trades at a price to earnings ratio of about 43 times current fiscal 2001 estimates of $1.42 per share. The stock is also trading with a P/E-to-growth (or PEG) ratio of about 1, based on earnings growth estimates of about 62% for 2001. "I'm very intrigued down here," Klee said. "Long term the numbers start to become interesting. This is a real company -- not a wing and a prayer." The fund manager conceded the real growth rate for Qualcomm is now impossible to ascertain and cautioned against bottom-fishing in this, or any, stock. But beyond prospects for CDMA's acceptance, about which he is optimistic but not ebullient, Klee is bullish on the company's chip-set business and continued ability to collect royalties on any phone sold with CDMA technology. "People who buy momentum stocks are all betting on continued outstanding growth,," he said. "You have to be realistic. This company is more likely to meet earnings than blow them away, which takes a whole class of investor away." Apparently, the stock's decline is starting to entice a different breed of investor. Maybe the real question for Qualcomm shareholders is figuring out which kind they aim to be.