SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnG who wrote (26400)6/15/2000 7:53:00 PM
From: JohnG  Respond to of 54805
 
Fund MAnager contemplates QCOM.
JohnG

The significance of that development was revealed in an interview with Rod Berry, co-manager of
the RS Information Age fund in San Francisco.

Berry described Qualcomm's move from around 150 to 200 late last year as the result of "pure hype
and speculation, and indiscriminant investing."

Nevertheless, the $395 million RS Information Age fund maintained its long-held stake in the
company. The decision was based partially on capital gains concerns, Berry said. But also because
"at the beginning of the year, with the continued growth of CDMA in the U.S. and Korea, plus new
markets in China, there was a much better picture in terms of where the growth going to come from
near term and long term," he said.

Expansion into China is considered key to Qualcomm's expansion of CDMA beyond its roughly 10%
share of the global wireless market. Rival technologies control about 70% of the market.

Conversely, in recent days, the fund has shed its Qualcomm stake despite's Berry's long-term
bullishness. "Now, it's one of those stories where nobody knows the real answer," the fund manager
said. "Anytime you get a stock that has so many question marks, I don't think that it's going to move
anytime soon."

Perhaps, like many investors, Berry was merely rationalizing when he held the stock late last year
and well into 2000. Given the unbridled returns Qualcomm's shares produced in 1999, it's not hard to
see how even savvy Wall Street types got a warped sense of reality regarding the stock. Draw your
own conclusions.

But as former believers bail on Qualcomm, some past skeptics are beginning to get interested.

Marc Klee, co-manager of the $1.1 billion John Hancock Technology fund, has long felt investors
were "overly enthused" about Qualcomm. But recently the fund initiated a small position in the stock
because the decline has taken it back to "reasonable valuations," he said.

Following Thursday's drop, Qualcomm trades at a price to earnings ratio of about 43 times current
fiscal 2001 estimates of $1.42 per share. The stock is also trading with a P/E-to-growth (or PEG)
ratio of about 1, based on earnings growth estimates of about 62% for 2001.

"I'm very intrigued down here," Klee said. "Long term the numbers start to become interesting. This
is a real company -- not a wing and a prayer."

The fund manager conceded the real growth rate for Qualcomm is now impossible to ascertain and
cautioned against bottom-fishing in this, or any, stock.

But beyond prospects for CDMA's acceptance, about which he is optimistic but not ebullient, Klee is
bullish on the company's chip-set business and continued ability to collect royalties on any phone
sold with CDMA technology.

"People who buy momentum stocks are all betting on continued outstanding growth,," he said. "You
have to be realistic. This company is more likely to meet earnings than blow them away, which takes
a whole class of investor away."

Apparently, the stock's decline is starting to entice a different breed of investor. Maybe the real
question for Qualcomm shareholders is figuring out which kind they aim to be.



To: JohnG who wrote (26400)6/15/2000 8:01:00 PM
From: BDR  Respond to of 54805
 
<<We are still a couple of months away from this type of crazy market action, but if things do not improve for the stock, there will be a compelling reason to get out at the end of the summer.>>

That's odd. I read the rest of the article and came to the opposite conclusion that there will be a compelling reason/opportunity to buy more at the end of summer.(g)