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To: GST who wrote (105039)	6/15/2000 8:15:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 164684

>> unless the cycle goes down and turns them into high pe without moving the stock price. Possibly no one here is interested in stuff like this, but if anyone is, it is probably you (and HJM, because I think he owns shares in each of the wilshire 3000). Anyway, let's take the most likely scenario for the next few months. The trade deficit is high, the dollar goes down, the economy slows. The Fed stops raising rates. The dollar goes down some more. A company like Federal Mogul has high sales in Europe and has suffered from high dollar. When the dollar drops, thats positive. Another factor. All industrial co's suffer from labor shortage, and in fact their marginal sales are not profitable because they are working so much overtime. So when demand slows a bit, their margins go up. And remember, the cyclicals traditionally go up a lot when the Fed stops raising and starts to lower rates. When do we see that ? how about first thing in 2001.