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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevRupert who wrote (7962)	6/15/2000 10:49:00 PM
From: ricky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Can anyone comment on WIND vs. MSFT is this space ? vhdl1

To: KevRupert who wrote (7962)	6/16/2000 5:11:00 AM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Hello Advalorem, Thanks for news and excellent questions you have been bringing to the forum. Off Topic: I understand some question has been raised about my reporting of the July 8, 1999 H&Q downgrade. Here is a snip from a Charles Schwab company report with the information. Please scroll down to the bold: (I don't have a live link because I pasted it from a PDF document on the Schwab site.) snip: Charles Schwab WIND RIVER SYSTEMS INC Company Research Report Prepared June 15, 2000 Page 5 of 6 ¸ 2000 Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Research On Request News Headlines Source: S&P 6/5/2000 S&P MarketScope, Market Movers UP 3 3/8 to 40... CS First Boston initiates coverage with strong buy... Friday co. posted $0.11 vs. $0.11 1Q EPS from ops... 6/5/2000 S&P MarketScope, Views and News 11:17 am... WIND RIVER SYSTEMS (WIND 39) UP 2-3/8, CS FIRST BOSTON INITIATES COVERAGE WITH STRONG BUY... FRIDAY CO. POSTED $0.11 VS. $0.11 1Q EPS FROM OPS... Analyst Erach Desai tells salesforce WIND's dominant market position, technology breadth, strong growth opportunity position co. to become leader in embedded systems software... Notes 1Q strong y/o/y... Says key growth drivers include: rapid move towards 32-and 64-bit processor architectures, pursuit of unlimited bandwith (communications) through middleware, the proliferation of non-traditional computing/communications devices... Sets $540M FY 02 (Jan) revenue est., $0.80 EPS... Has $66 target./M.Morrow 3/3/2000 Annual Results -- NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's)--Mar 2, 2000, WIND RIVER SYSTEMS INC., announced 4Q EPS $0.17 vs. $0.19 and annual EPS $0.50 vs. $0.58. 2/29/2000 S&P MarketScope, Market Movers UP 7 7/8 to 58... Co. to acquire Embedded Support Tools Corp. for 6.3M shares of WIND... Expects deal to be accretive in first full year of ops... Jefferies reiterates buy... 2/29/2000 S&P MarketScope, Views and News 10:05 am... WIND RIVER (WIND 53-5/8) UP 3 1/2, TO ACQUIRE EMBEDDED SUPPORT TOOLS CORP. (ESTC) FOR 6.3M WIND SHARES... JEFFERIES REITERATES BUY... Analyst Richard Williams says after acquisition of privately-held ESTC, co. will be strategically positioned to dominate embedded systems market with end-to-end solution of "Post PC Era"... Reiterates $65 target... Says ESTC is dominant vendor in small, but critical niche of software tools market, which necessary to make real-time embedded operations systems work reliably, optimally with underlying processor chip... Thinks niche essential element in larger trend to introduce intelligence into plethora of devices.. Sees $0.62 FY 01 (Jan) EPS, $0.85 FY 02./Wolfe 11/19/1999 Third Quarter Results -- NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's)--Nov. 18, 1999, WIND RIVER SYSTEMS INC., announced 3Q EPS $0.13 vs. $0.16 and 9 mos. EPS $0.33 vs. $0.40. 9/3/1999 Second Quarter Results -- Aug 19, 1999, WIND RIVER SYSTEMS INC., announced 2Q EPS $0.10 vs. $0.16 and 6 mos. EPS $0.19 vs. $0.23. Results are adjusted for January '99 3-for-2 stock split. 7/8/1999 S&P MarketScope, Market Movers DOWN 2 3/4 to 14 5/8... Hambrecht & Quist downgrades to market perform from buy... Co. unavailable... 7/8/1999 S&P MarketScope, Views and News 2:00 pm... WIND RIVER SYSTEMS (WIND 14-7/8) DOWN 2-1/2, H&Q DOWNGRADES TO MARKET PERFORM FROM BUY... Analyst Matt Belkin tells MarketScope customer survey indicates WIND's flagship product Tornado II not ramping up as anticipated... Also, Tornado for managed switches likely to be delayed another 2-3 months... Says co. going through CEO transition, management not talking... Cuts $0.73 FY 00 EPS on $162M rev. est. to $0.63 EPS on $155M revenue... Although believes WIND represents excellent long term investment, near term uncertainty outweighs potential reward./S.Trombino Wind closed at 14 5/8 on the day of H&Q's downgrade. It looks like the best an investor could have done would have been if he had sold near the open at 16 7/8. The lowest the stock ever traded after the July 8 close of 14 5/8 was on August 20 when it traded intraday at 13 3/8. After that it rose fairly steadily to an intraday high of 45 on December 9, a 208% return in five months from the close of the day of the H&Q downgrade. I now see Mr. Belkin says he upgraded after the new CEO was hired. The CEO was hired after the market closed on 9/7/99 and the lowest the stock ever traded after that was $16.50. Here is the link for the highs, lows, and closes during that period: chart.yahoo.com Both Mr. Belkin and I may be slightly off on the reporting of this event with no subterfuge intended. Is it correct for me to use the closing price of the stock on the day of downgrade instead of the close of the day before (17.44)? OR would the open on the day of the downgrade be better? By the way, I looked for a minute by minute chart for July 8 but didn't find one yet. I would also like to have a minute by minute report regarding when Mr. Belkin made his downgrade, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it was before the market opened. As for Mr. Belkin's recount of events, we can see from the table the stock never traded in the twelves after the downgrade nor did it ever trade in the fifteens after the CEO was hired. Mr. Belkin likely had some well thought out reasons for the downgrade, but as is often the case with many analysts' calls---and sadly so, there were very few individual investors that could have benefited by acting on this analyst's downgrade, but instead there were a number of people that were able to benefit almost immediately by doing the opposite and buying in the afternoon on the same day of the downgrade. In severe cases like today with QCOM, the small investor not only loses his chance to sell in the first half hour of trading but loses it in pre market trading before the market even opens. QCOM opened down almost eight points today over the previous day's close on the H&Q pre market downgrade. But hopefully the H&Q downgrade on QCOM today is a great buying opportunity for QCOM just as the H&Q downgrade on WIND last summer turned out to be a great buying opportunity for WIND. Keep up the excellent questions to this forum and please pardon this lengthy off topic discussion. Best, Huey