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To: John Harton who wrote (8574)	6/15/2000 10:16:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 11051

Thanks .. What would be really sad is if the effect were to vaporise now and render the pattern simply noise. This is entirely possible. We've had two very large hedge funds fall by the wayside. It just might be that I had found traces of their fingerprints .. Only three more ciggeretts left .. switchin to decaff .. and I just might have to go into my own box for a bit. It'll be hard to switch the computer off .. It'll be nice not to have the neck throbing and the eyes feeling like their bulging out .. And more sleep .. Good night John

To: John Harton who wrote (8574)	6/16/2000 12:38:00 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

>>You got a thing that back tests 100%<< Sigh... Here's just a comment or two on this point.... "Our past record is no guarantee..." etc (smallprint e'body had to read it one time or another Take 10 best funds for a period of say 5 years at some time X. Then take the period of 5 years after X. On average you will get 50/50 win/loss. Another point from my 9-to-5 experience: any model, which backtests to 100%, SUX. If anything, it's overtrained and topples on any, even so slightly, curved ball Mr market decides to throw us. dj