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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (26423)	6/16/2000 4:44:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

Jacob: Your overall approach of buying LEAPS (as far out in time and as far out of the money as practical) is a very interesting one. To me this is especially appropriate for Qualcomm right now. (And BTW this is what I did in late 1997 in buying Qualcomm Jan 2000 LEAPS then - a good experience) Using the gorilla game concepts offers some degree of risk / reward limitation over the long - very long - run for some (not all IMO) gorillas and a better chance for carefully watched kings. Your approach fits this well - if I understand it properly. Buying the stock itself fits it properly also. A combination may make the most sense of all. But I am not commenting on that. This deals with Qualcomm and Qualcomm only. The reason that buying Jan 2003 LEAPS for Qualcomm seems like an opportunity to me is the pattern of growth in data which I foresee. There is a major risk in taking a position now based on that, but LEAPS cut the monetary risk of being wrong and increase the reward if right. To me the time frame and pattern for the data tornado in general and Qualcomm's participation is visible through the fog. That is that the "no brainer" adoption of 1X starts late this year and proceeds rapidly next. HDR which permits data on a separate channel should begin to bite in around the middle of next year. This is the opening wedge of 3rd gen in wireless. The GSM alternatives (upgrades) are weak competitors. So the demonstration of these CDMA / HDR data speeds and what they can permit in the real world should be in full swing during 2001 - even with the slippage which always seems to happen. Beyond this initial pattern it is hard to see but the demand for wireless data as a major nexus to the internet / intranet seems likely to be there. No certainty, but high likelihood IMO. All of this is an exercise in probability - no certainty at all. And this abstracts completely from when (or even if) the adoption of CDMA takes place for not only the CDMA base but the GSM base. Some flavor of CDMA will be adopted for both. And Qualcomm is in a unique position to profit from that in 2003/4/5 or whenever it happens. This picture should be clearer prior to Jan 2003. I lay this out explicitly only as speculation. There is a path which I see and this may not happen for many many reasons. And for gorilla gamers who value risk aversion highly, this is much too aggressive. To be clear also, I do not plan to use LEAPS this way myself because of my own personal situation and because somewhere around half of my holdings are already in the Q. I just am putting some meat on the bones for further discussion here - if anyone wishes to think about this and consider it. It should be obvious that I am not offering investment advice but just food for thought, but to be explicit, nothing in the above is investment advice - that is neither practical nor appropriate here - each person here does his/her DD and decides for his/herself as gorilla gamers must, no? Best. Cha2