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Strategies & Market Trends : Angels of Alchemy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SirRealist who wrote (2546)	6/16/2000 7:13:00 AM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24256

FNSR Finisar came off a June 1st low of 20.5 to a June 6 high near 26.5. Friday, it unlocks 45m shares. On July 26 it rleases 48m shares. It achieved a late March high of 58. On May 31st, this net profitable company (in the fibre optic subsystems field) posted these earnings: bigcharts.com It will see sales from two new market opportunities: the digital return path system for CATV networks and Opticity WDM access systems, added to its next quarter earnings, approximately August 31st. At 21-9/16, its all time intraday low was 19-3/16, in February. Without the lockup influence, it would trade in the 25-29 range, despite its P/E of 1078 (not abnormal for a profitable company in this hot sector). A 7% loss would take it down to 20-1/16; a stop at 19.5 would keep losses to 10%. The Bollinger Bands indicate a breakout and the stochastics reached a crossover point. But volume has declined and other TA indicators don't point to an upside break yet. Since it's not at its final unlock, I don't expect much more downside however. I recommend you monitor this one for movement as it could easily bounce back to 26 immediately, which was its price at the beginning of its earnings run and at its June 6 peak. It becomes a definite buy in the range of 19.5 - 20.25 If you buy at 20.25, you should set a mental stop loss of 19.5 to keep losses to 8%; though I believe it will rebound from that approximate point very quickly. So you might choose to hold on for the upside. By July 5 - 3 weeks from its final unlock, I believe you'll see it at the 29-30 level again. If you're lucky enough to buy it at 19.5, that represents a 50% upside within 3 weeks. You might want to wait for the pending market dip to get this one, to maximize that upside. Or ride it uphill both times, as it may stage a mini-rally tomorrow or Monday. Monday is 20 days past earnings, so a pop of as much as 20% would be normal here.