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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (68322)	6/16/2000 10:29:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Good question. I'm pretty tired as I was up most of the night; working (ugh). I've got 9 days of "real" vacation lined so I'll definitely weigh in soon. But right now it's nappy pooh time. <g> Looks like the PKD breakout was for real eh? Bull

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (68322)	6/16/2000 5:39:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP, re OPEC meeting. I thinks SA and Kuwait and maybe Mexico do have enough spare capacity to boost supplies by 1 mbpd. I have read that OPEC is producing over current quota by anywhere from 450 - 650 mbpd. They have been doing so probably since very close to the past spring meeting. I note that that said increases have merely kept US stocks on a treadmill, and on a historical basis these stock still remain very low. Crude stocks are BELOW 300 mb again and seem to be falling sharply as refiners suck up existing stocks. IMO OPEC probably needs to increase crude supplies. But I don't think they should bump them up by that much as the US economy is now clearly slowing. I do think OPEC wants prices to drop, but not like they dropped the last time. My best WAG for the meeting is for some compromise number like 700 - 800 mbpd, quota busting inclusive and ratified. So, maybe an extra 300 mbpd in REAL increases. Note: There can and probably will be supply disruptions along the way. EX. Iraqi machinery starts to fail, a north sea well or two go down (for whatever reason), Nigerian riots, early hurricane in the GOM, oil worker strikes etc and so forth. All these could happen to temporarily limit production to a varying degree. I do also expect some refinery outages as refineries are now operating pretty much at full capacity. I don't think the current pace can be maintained without some major disruptions along the way. However, it's not all coming up roses and lollypops for energy. US demand WILL slow with the economy. This is NOT trivia! BTW Ain't selling PKD till 8 - 8.5