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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry D who wrote (68326)	6/16/2000 11:22:00 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 95453

Seems like everyone is expecting oil to fall from $30 again and as such they're not investing in bulk in this sector. In many ways $25 oil is better because people see some upside potential. However, eventually all that extra money has to go somewhere. The majors and independents can only pay down so much debt before they start buying the oil services in bulk. Will OPEC really allow oil to fall back to $20 by year's end now that they've had a taste of prolonged $25-30? I don't think so... Spare capacity ain't what it used to be. I'm looking for oil to average closer to $28 for the year. Anyone else notice the heavy volume on OEI yesterday and today? 800K shares traded already. If volume hits 2+ mil I may buy more. News is often leaked in advance. It may just be playing catch up to it's peers. Due to OEI's hedges and the fact that it's not a "pure" gas play it has been shunned of late, but on a risk/reward basis the balanced plays are not a bad way to go imho. I'm mostly trading OEI at this point, but will consider holding some long term if they get a big find.

To: Terry D who wrote (68326)	6/16/2000 11:24:00 AM
From: stevedhu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Terry, on a day like today, GOD BLESS, KEG and FGH!!! Take CAre Steve

To: Terry D who wrote (68326)	6/23/2000 6:02:00 PM
From: Robert T. Quasius	Respond to of 95453

Interesting report about MRO, from the MRO Yahoo board. 07:15am EDT 23-Jun-00 Bear Stearns Leuffer CFA,F./Kevin Wood,W. Yesterday, we met with Thomas Usher and Clarence Cazalot. Management's primary short-term focus is on fixing fundamental problems in exploration and production operations - high finding costs, poor reserve replacement, low ROCE, and slow growth. Mr. Cazalot promises to make big changes in upstream operations in the next six to nine months. Details of his plan will be announced in late July. The thrust of his actions will be to change E&P's asset base initially through trades and swaps with other companies and eventually through acquisitions. Marathon sees opportunities to lower overhead costs by concentrating activities more heavily in certain basins and by exiting others. Cost reduction objectives were not quantified. Given the company's poor finding record in the past two years, unit costs are set to rise sharply. Mr. Cazalot hopes to reduce unit production and depletion costs through asset swaps. At the same time, the company will seek to participate in high potential/higher risk exploration plays by taking smaller interests in a larger number of prospects. Deepwater exploration efforts in the Gulf of Mexico are being scaled back following disappointing results. Marathon will drill five wildcat wells this year, down from eight wells that were planned earlier. Through swaps, the company hopes to diversify its portfolio, lessening exposure to the deeper Walker Ridge area into lower costs fold belt structures. Drilling plans are being accelerated offshore eastern Canada and Angola. Management is satisfied with the structure and performance of MAP, its refining and marketing joint venture with Ashland Inc. No significant changes in operations are planned. We get the impression that a change in Marathon's 62% interest in MAP is unlikely for several years. USX management is much more inclined and open to changing the tracking-stock structure of Marathon and U.S. Steel. Outside advisors have been hired to study the change. It is anticipated that tax credits will be fully utilized around year end. A lot of the reasons for the structure "have gone away." Mr. Usher says that a final decision on a change will not be announced in the next three months. Management prefers to implement Marathon's new strategic plan and hopes for a higher share price before unraveling the tracking stocks. Mr. Usher believes that a "transfer payment" from Marathon to U.S. Steel of $400-$600 million (less than $2 per Marathon share) would be necessary to win approval for the change from U.S. Steel shareholders and to bolster the steel company's financial position as a stand alone company. "It is not a question of if, but when the change will be made." We get the impression that management sees Marathon as being vulnerable to a takeover on the cheap if the tracking-stock structure is unwound without first improving operations. However, they reiterated several times that sale of the company remains an option that would be considered. We continue to believe that year end 2000 is a reasonable timeframe for an announcement. Dismantling the tracking stocks could add $5 per share or more to Marathon's stock price, in our opinion. We believe decisive action on this issue would be an important catalyst in lifting investor interest in Marathon. Management is not inclined to repurchase shares. This is a mistake, in our judgement, given the low valuation of this stock. We estimate share repurchases to be accretive to earnings per share at prices up to $62 per share. However, the Board of Directors is considering a modest dividend increase - a positive move, in our view. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Our twelve-month target price for MRO stock is $38 (assuming no change in the tracking-stock structure -