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To: gdichaz who wrote (26444)	6/16/2000 3:38:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, Re: CDMA 2000 v. UMTS/UTRA (WCDMA) DS << Re the "island" quote. Strange in the extreme. Perhaps he is a Synder clone >> Hershel is a clone of noone. They broke the mold when they made him. Actually I can's say that I have followed Hershel to closely for the last few years so I really don't know where he stands on cdmaOne/cdma2000. I am not currently in touch with anyone that subscribes his newsletter. I don't have a real concern about the 1st Shostek quote "I would be very skeptical of claims that the political situation [between state-run Unicom and Qualcomm] is resolved." There is enough confusion about China to justify that one. I have, however, again reread the final paragraph of the story. It is a curious one, and today, every article you see, has it's little enigmas. >> "Analyst Shostek predicted that carriers in South Korea and Japan would quickly drop so-called "generation 2.5" technologies and go directly to 3G. That means cdma2000 could become a "technology island" if, as expected, Japanese carriers like DDI go to the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System, the European implementation of 3G." << In this case there seems to be something missing or askew in that paragraph. The first sentence and known facts, or facts in the article, don't seem to support the conclusion in the second sentence. I know there is the possibility that SK Telecom will build out a UMTS system in new spectrum to complement a cdma2000 system using a bridge and hooks and extensions. Like you, I have however seen nothing recent that would indicate that DDI IDO is still considering this. Perhaps the last line should read NTT DoCoMo instead of DDI? Who knows? I don't think DDI is ready to rush into building out a network in new spectrum since, unlike DoCoMo, they have plenty of existing spectrum. I really don't think that cdma2000 will become a "technology" island. A lot can happen between now and the time DDI builds out with 3G harmonization and standards evolution. << the London news on "smart cards" seems positive for roaming and specifically for CDMA >> That is one of the reasons I do not think that cdma2000 will become a "technology" island. Regardless, the article seems pretty Qualcomm positive overall, and I'm pleased to see that. That has been the case with most EE Times articles. They are so far as I can tell pretty objective. - Eric -

To: gdichaz who wrote (26444)	6/16/2000 7:02:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, Re: CDMA in Asia (QCOM) article in EE Times Back to that article. Although it is well written and I think pretty objective and accurate, this paragraph, I think is inaccurate, and that fact should be pointed out: In Japan, DDI, the country's second largest wireless operator with 13.6 million subscribers, announced here that it began using cdma2000 1X/HDR in May. DDI'S cdma2000 plan is facing stiff competition from second-generation personal digital communication systems as well as from wideband-CDMA services. The entire cdmaOne service in Japan has only about 10 percent market share out of a total of 52 million cellular subscribers. I think the sentences would be more properly stated this way: * In Japan, DDI, the country's second largest wireless operator with 13.6 million subscribers, announced in May that it would begin using cdma2000 1X/HDR at sometime in the future, like end of 2001. * DDI'S cdmaOne implementation is facing stiff competition from second-generation personal digital communication systems and NTT DoCoMos iMode services. DDI's cdma2000 plan will face stiff competition from wideband-CDMA services to be offered by DoCoMo. It is unfortunate that the article does not state: * Although The entire cdmaOne service in Japan has only about 10 percent market share out of a total of 52 million cellular subscribers, it is growing very rapidly. Also, this one re China Unicom is interesting: The *huge trial, encompassing tens of cellular basestations*, will move from narrowband IS-95A directly to cdma2000 1X multiple carrier technology. Now is that 10, 10 per city, 10's of 10's, 10's of hundreds, 10's of thousands (no, that is not a trial). The wireless industry faces a complicated generational evolution and wireless is a complex industry to begin with. It is unfortunate, but very few articles on wireless get all the facts straight or present the facts in an objective fashion. As a result of this we have seen what happens. Qualcomm gets a real head of steam, has several quarters with blow out earnings, and investors pile in, for any number of reasons, including an announcement of a 4:1 stock split, but few have done serious DD. There takeaway is that CDMA will be the defacto wireless technology standard for world. Presumably, this will happen quickly. This sets the stage for an enthusiastic young analyst named Walt Piecyk to set an aggressive 12 month price target and the already highly valued stock increases almost 40 points in a single day. Walt backs up his price target with a set of assumptions, some of which were easily challenged. I sold 25% of my position on 12/31. I wasn't even thinking of the anomaly that had just occurred, just end of year rebalancing. In retrospect (if we were seers as Lindy would say) we probably would all have taken a lot more off the table), but heck we were riding a sure thing (whoops, a gorilla) and we are LTB&H by nature. People take profits, shorts sell, The stock splits, the company announces decent (not blow out) earnings, and warns about the next quarter. In 25 days the stock drops from 180 to 110. The company announces a deal with China that they have been working on for years. The NAZ continues to roll and we get back to 155. Bang! Correction time for the NAZ. Joe Average Investor has his antenna up. He is becoming a little more capable of separating hype from reality and in the process probably overreacts to bad news, no news, or misinformation. DDI gets flaky. This causes attention on the issue of WCDMA v. CDMA. What? IPR issues not settled? 3G may be further out than expected. GSM has new life with GPRS. AT&T ain't backing off on EDGE. China cancels. No, China postpones. The NAZ starts a recovery. Nobody knows how long it will last. Bad news takes on more weight than good news. All this lays the stage for an analyst like Ed Snyder from H&Q to state opinions (which he has held for some time) that adversely affect a stock that is closely watched, more than they should. There is definitely some uncertainty being generated about Qualcomm's potential for the short haul. Inaccuracies need to be addressed whether they are Q positive, or Q negative, where they exist, IMO. This is my feeble attempt to address a few of them. - Eric - eric@longonqcommandgladitwasuptoday