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To: Stoctrash who wrote (54539)	6/16/2000 4:13:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 116837

I don't quite remember, but I do seem to recall that he was constantly posting articles that were sensationalized and making some illogical comments about stagflation and such... It was the stagflation BS that led me to draw him and justify what I figured was pretty inane logic. But when he attacks your opinion (even if he claims you as a friend) without permitting other to take him to task, something just has to be done about it. I'm glad he put me on ignore. Now I don't have to address a response to myself or someone else when he says something that he thinks we should take as gospel. As for the QQQ, when it finally breaks this Bollinger Band pinch on the daily chart, it could get interesting in one direction or another. Looks like it could go either way, but should have a bias to the upside if we don't see some event driven negativity in the market. siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com Regards, Ron

To: Stoctrash who wrote (54539)	6/17/2000 12:16:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116837

<What did you do to have him cut you off?> Gullible Annie FredE will obviously believe in just about anything he is told. I've never put anyone on ignore on SI. Some of the spin masters who work for the Government are trained in spin. I know because I lived in D.C. for 6 years and I met plenty of them. Once you get a few drinks in the spin masters and they perceive you as non-threatening, the Wimps confess their whole story. I'm not sure that most people understand what inflation means. When investment exceeds savings I think we have inflation. The excess investment means that the banking system has created new credit. Deflation reverses the situation. A crisis has occurred and credit and money have contracted, banks have foreclosed, investment has halted, pessimism is rife, cash holdings have increased and prices are falling; thus savings now exceed investment. In short, it is monetary disturbances that cause discrepancies between savings and investment. I think the US economy may be headed in this direction. The great fear that the spin masters have is that a large, if not sudden, increase in the demand to hold money will send the economy into a recession and possibly depression. To be sure, a sudden and significant demand for cash balances would have a deflationary effect. But a sudden and motiveless demand to increase cash balances is unheard of for the spin masters. If the stock market does not rebound over the coming year, or if it continues to fall, people will be forced to liquidate some more of their equity holdings and raise cash to pay off their debt. But significant increases in the demand for cash balances are a secondary feature of deflations: large-scale liquidations create pessimism in the business community and depress investment and borrowing, borrowers try to acquire cash to pay off their debts, banks accumulate reserves and falling prices induce consumers and business to hold more money. What were the latest earning warnings from a couple of banks all about? What do you think they signify? Do you really think they were just company specific? To be sure, stagflation represents a different economic scenario than the one I have just painted. In stagflation, you get the situation of rising prices, idle capacity and rising unemployment.. The Inflation Rate is now greater than the sluggish growth rate. I did say in December 98 on GPM that I thought the US economy was headed to stagflation. I still think that stagflation is a live possibility here too. The Inflation Data is clearly being cooked by the BLS and prices are continuing to rise as the economy dramatically slows. Stay tuned. The verdict is not out yet here. Moreover, I think a "soft landing" is a very naive assumption here. Growth seems to be slowing pretty dramatically here. I think the Fed is on the verge of overdoing its monetary policy, if it hasn't done so already. IMHO The religious market belief in a soft landing makes a hard landing more likely since interest rates haven't risen enough and stock prices haven't fallen enough to slow demand growth.