To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (24397 ) 6/16/2000 8:04:00 PM From: donald sew Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42787
JUNE 16 INDEX UPDATE ---------------------- SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL READINGS: DOW - lower midrange SPX - midrange OEX - midrange NAZ - overbought NDX - overbought/borderline CLASS 2 SELL VIX - 23.55, oversold region(inverse to market) CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .53 The important event today was that the DOW gave 2 negatives: 1) broke the UPWARD TRENDLINE from the MAY LOWs to the downside 2) produced a LOWER LOW(previous trough at 10,493(June 13) Here are the next SUPPORT LINEs/AREAs: 1) 10,375(weak) 2) 10,300-10,260(strong) 3) 10,200(strong) The bigger pattern for the DOW is the DESCENDING TRIANGLE which is still valid, and implies significant negativity if 10,200 is broken to the downside. The NAZ/NDX has been trading in a very tight range for 11 straight days, which is not normal. As mentioned previously I interpret this flat trading as a STAIRSTEP(rectangle), but still not sure in which direction. Since this RECTANGLE developed during an uptrend, such implies that the break should be to the upside; however there are significant amount of negatives which also implies that the break should be to the downside. We cant forget that GAP at 3585 and the GAP at 3200. The VIX bounced off the LOWER TRENDLINE of the BEARISH WEDGE, so the BEARISH WEDGE is still valid. The UPPER TRENDLINE of this BEARISH WEDGE is around 25 for MON, so its not that far from a TEST. A break above 25 would be a NEGATIVE for the market. We cannot ignore the possibility of SECTOR ROTATION where the NAZ could break out which the DOW selloff, but for now I am still more inclined that the overally market should weaken some next week. seeya