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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tekboy who wrote (26459)6/19/2000 12:50:00 AM
From: RoseCampion  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Geoff Moore is quoted as writing that:
by virtue of its own value-chain power, Intel imposed its choice on the rest of the industry by building Rambus into the following year's reference design for the PC. Now the DRAM vendors were stuck, for the Intel reference design forms the mandate for the entire industry. So with much gnashing of teeth, they all signed up to license Rambus's technology. That is how Rambus leveraged the value-chain level of the competitive-advantage hierarchy

Except that at least to this observer, this does not at all seem to be what has happened with RMBS recently. The proprietary technology Moore says Intel was using and basing its reference design on (meaning RDRAM, via support in Intel's 820/840 chipsets) is by no means in a tornado as yet, nor AFAIK has RMBS convinced a large number of memory makers to actually manufacture it in volumes anywhere near approaching the staggeringly huge amounts of SDRAM they pump out. Furthermore, DDR-SDRAM still seems to be a highly-credible contender for being the majority the next generation of commodity PC memory versus RDRAM.

Instead, RMBS's huge boost on Friday came from news of Toshiba signing of a broad-based license agreement, which meant that RMBS's oft-repeated contention that its IPR is fully applicable to other types of memory (specifically, SDRAM and DDR-SDRAM) was now much, much more credible. This has a lot to do with the GG (control of proprietary but open standards and all that), but nothing at all to do with the scenario Moore lays out above, where Intel's reference design and its commanding position in the Wintel value chain somehow formed an ironclad mandate for memory manufacturers, forcing them to flock to RMBS like so many sheep.

What's much more interesting - and, I would guess, far more applicable to many of us here - is the corollary this provides to QCOM's IPR position and the market's perception of it. At this point, should one of the remaining "biggies" (MOT or NOK, specifically) sign a license agreement with Q for royalties on all 3G modes - as ERICY and Hitachi (and Samsung?) have already done - it would instantly serve to validate Q's contention that its proprietary IPR is applicable across much more than its own in-house, "minority" standard (i.e., substitute "cdma2000" for "RDRAM", and "WCDMA and TS-CDMA" for "SDRAM and DDR" in the discussion above). I would suspect that following such an event, the resulting day's gap up in Q's market value would make RMBS's measly <g> 47% pop on Friday look rather paltry in comparison.

=Rose=

PS: Don't really follow RMBS closely, and have never held the stock long or short, so forgive any broad-brush-stroke simplifications in the above relating to the company's current competitive position.