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To: Ahda who wrote (54551)	6/16/2000 9:05:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116837

I envision in the the near future a slow down in employment. Wouldn't THAT make AG and the other Fed governors rejoice!!.. :0) Since we're at all-time highs for employment, the powers that be won't cry too many tears if we go up to 4.5% unemployment. I also feel we are close to max on property here in LA upper end. Shortage of land, or merely new homes? Well, that hardly impacts the lower end, except that when price go down for higher priced real estate, that should benefit the lower end as well. Btw, there is a new kind of mortgage loan being offered out there known as an ARC loan (automatic rate cut). Apparently, the rate will stay fixed should rates go up, but should they decline, the rate will automatically decrease at no cost for re-financing. Kinda interesting, I thought.. haven't explored it to any depth though. As for rents increasing, I can relate. Any higher for us and it will be cheaper to buy a house. But since we're not sure we want to remain here, we've held off buying a house. There is little surplus property in the DC area. Raising rates put the hurt on some development plans for building new homes and that has left the remaining homes very much in demand. However, considering the global repercussions, you should probably feel more sympathy for Asia and Europe. The Europeans have to raise rates to defend their currency since higher energy prices impact them more than they do the US, oil being denominated in US dollars. That's why I have a feeling that oil prices are set to decline by the end of the year. There will be too much pressure placed upon OPEC, who lack the unity they possess during the '70s. Agree with the JIT comment. But transport is involved in any kind of manufacturing.. goods have to be shipped one way or another, no matter what the time window. The only difference is that more of it is going by plane. Part of the cost of JIT has been offset by the efficiencies realized by reducing inventory costs. Regards, Ron

To: Ahda who wrote (54551)	6/17/2000 12:01:00 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116837

<<As far as gas goes, JIT has a cost called transport. >> Very good Darleen, you have seen that which is missed by many. JIT means more air Vs less truck transport, as well as less train & ship Vs more truck. I wonder if the "great central planners" understood how much more energy dependant JIT was than traditional material planning strategies?(ha - fools - I told them so) Another place JIT fails is in an inflationary environment where each day, week, month or quarter something becomes more expensive & you are paying yourself by warehousing raw materials. Part of the "New Paradigm" biting the dust? YES!