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We Have the Genetic Roadmap ? Now Where's CCATGTC?!
Joel Achenbach can be reached by e-mail at achenbachj@washpost.com.
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Wednesday, June 21, 2000; 12:27 PM
In a matter of days, scientists will announce that they've tentatively deciphered the entire human genome ?the genetic instructions for the creation of a person. At that moment we should stop whatever we're doing, and ask ourselves what this means, spiritually, philosophically, what the implications are for our conception of the human soul, and most importantly, how it will affect the biotech stocks.
I think biotech will spike upward, then crash.
Admittedly it may be narrow-minded to view the real world as nothing but the source of stimuli for fluctuations in the stock market. We have to remember that something like a major world war involving massive aerial combat and bombardment of cities would be, in a subjective sense, "bad," a fact that should temper some of our euphoria if we happen to own stock in Boeing.
But let's not be naive. Creating a better world is not just a noble goal, it's something that represents a great opportunity for the savvy investor. In coming years we will want to know not only the function of a newly discovered gene, but who, precisely, owns the patent on it. Merely "having" a gene is so old-fashioned. You want an equity stake in the thing. You want to be able to go up to a person who has a great nose and say, "I've taken a strong position in that," tapping the person right on the old honker.
There will come a day when you can have certain kinds of lips, like puffy, seductive Fiona Apple lips, only if you pay a private company for the right to sport that particular style. Wear them without a license and you could get stopped by the gene police, who'll flash their badges and pistols and say, "Drop those lips right now!" (Typing this, I realize it's a lame derivative of the Woody Allen joke in "Sleeper" in which he points a gun at some guy's detached nose ?he's holding it in his hand ?and says something like "One false move and he gets it right between the eyes.")
Today The Post's Justin Gillis reports on the roller-coaster ride of biotech stocks. The situation reveals a truly unholy union between greed and cluelessness. Yes, it's easy to imagine that there are vast riches to be made through biotechnology. It would be highly lucrative if you could find the operating system, if you will, of a human being. The genome is some powerful software. Investors may think that one of these biotech firms is in the same position as Microsoft in the early 1980s.
But there are a few major problems for the investor seeking the big kill. First there's the fact that we're not anywhere near the end of the genome investigation. When they hold the big press conference, the scientists will have to confess that they haven't literally "decoded" the genome. They've merely put together a map. They still won't know where the treasure is buried. They'll know that along a certain chromosome there is a certain sequence of nucleic acids, called adenine, thymine, cytosine and guanine, and they'll have to say, "We're still trying to figure out what the heck guanine is."
Actually they know that part. But finding the sequence of "letters" (for the initials of the acids, A, T, C, G) is a bit like finding a document written in an unknown language. Certain stretches of the genome will contain the instructions for a manufacture of a single protein ?but what that protein does in the body may remain unknown for years. Moreover, the body is so complicated, with so many non-genetic variables (remember "Nurture"?), that it's not likely that they'll find a gene that, for example, impairs the sense of humor to the point that a person is compelled to write outraged letters to the editor about statements in columns that were obviously facetious.
The company to watch in coming days and, perhaps, coming years, will be Celera Genomics Corp. It has been in a race with the federally funded Human Genome Project to come up with a first draft of the human genome. The founder and driving force at Celera is J. Craig Venter. He's a certified genius who has alienated more than a few people over the years and seems to view the genomic competition as a wonderful sport.
(Full disclosure: I own no stock in Celera, or in any biotech company. This may actually skew my comments even more than if I did own stock in these companies, since at some fundamental level all stocks are in competition. I may be unconsciously rooting against biotech firms because my portfolio, as I've reported previously, is heavily loaded up on extremely poor-performing Ancient Economy stocks in the papyrus, pottery, loincloth and cave-painting industries.)
Venter said in an interview a couple of years ago that someday it may be possible for an ordinary person to visit Celera and have his or her genome tested on the spot ?drive-through sequencing, in a sense. That might show that the person is a good candidate for drugs that aren't currently on the market because they cause side-effects in a relatively small percentage of people.
It's a great concept, but is Celera really the company that will make it happen? How far away is that kind of technology? How safe would it be? And could you really handle the psychological torment if you found out, for example, that you carried the gene that causes people to order overly elaborate espresso drinks? Some things are best left unknown.
What's certain is that we live in a time of awesome technology. To that end, let's leave this column with a link to something truly amazing: The CornCam. That's right, the CornCam, right out there in Iowa, keeping tabs on a field of corn. Any day now we will be able to watch it "tassle."
Rough Draft will be on hiatus for a couple of weeks unless there is a breaking news story that requires emergency columnizing. Everyone stay calm.
¸ 2000 The Washington Post Company |
