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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Activatecard who wrote (40411)	6/16/2000 9:24:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

Steve, the question is not whether there are dots to be connected, but whether they will be connected. in this case i have an idea they might be...i think it's another warning sign that the semi cycle may be close to topping. one thing i have learned is that both the bottoming and topping of the semi cycle involve very subtle signals that are usually not picked up by the majority of analysts in time. one thing is certain: the semi stocks are all crowded trades, and that makes them extremely vulnerable to even a hint of bad news. another signal indicative of a top (note, the stocks top usually before the business cycle does), is the unanimity of opinion on WS. show me ONE semi bear, ex Luc and Fleck...the only thing one hears is how it's different this time, the cycle will last longer than any other, or alternatively the cycle is 'repealed'. precisely the type of argument encountered at tops. also, we just had record bookings in recent months, which is in itself not meaningful, but in connection with related evidence also a sign of a nearing top. last but not least, in no other cycle that went before have the semi stocks reached such extremely lofty valuations...it is in fact absurd to accord such valuations to a cyclical industry. it looks to me like more than just good news has been discounted... fire at will. -g-