To: kormac who wrote (68367 ) 6/17/2000 8:14:00 AM From: Tomas Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
Soaring gasoline prices. Conspiracy? No, it was inevitable. The Kansas City Star, June 15 Jerry Heaster Column Unraveling The Twists And Turns Of The Gasoline Market As gasoline prices soar, the conspiracy theorists are reacting as they usually do and blaming Big Oil's pursuit of obscene profits. If only it were that simple. First things first, though: If it makes you feel any better, gasoline at a buck-eighty a gallon today is really only about 85 cents a gallon in 1980 dollars. So if your income has kept pace with inflation over the past 20 years, you're breaking even. If your earning power has outpaced inflation, smile: You're ahead of the game. As for the reasons behind gasoline's price surge, what's happening was inevitable. The only surprise is that gasoline prices remained as low as they did for as long as they did. This is small comfort to consumers filling 30-gallon SUV tanks, but this is the way the real world works. Cheap energy isn't an American birthright, despite widespread assumptions to the contrary. Speaking of such things, the next cry of anguish you're likely to hear will be next winter from homeowners trying to heat those huge piles they bought heedless of how natural gas prices might behave in the future. For the record, the market is working exactly as intended. The primary reason gasoline prices have been climbing gets back to OPEC's decision last year to boost oil prices by reducing production. Nobody expected the cartel to make cutbacks stick, because it never has. In the past, some producer has always cheated and thus destroyed OPEC's solidarity. This time, however, OPEC's resolve has held, which means global supply has held more or less steady as demand has risen. Meanwhile, as often happens in these cases, American drivers experienced bad luck in the form of Environmental Protection Agency mandates for some areas to switch to a type of gasoline that produces less air pollution. Early estimates of how much more expensive this gasoline would be proved lower than predicted. This isn't unusual when government requires something on the promise that its cost to society will be negligible. The guesses are probably lowballed to make them more politically palatable. Not only is the "reformulated" fuel more expensive than guessed, but it also diverts a good deal of already scarce refining capacity from its usual job of producing regular gasoline. This further reduces supply, which not surprisingly creates more price pressure. June's EPA-related price spike has been exacerbated, some experts say, by OPEC's inability to convince the oil market that the cartel wants stable prices. The resulting uncertainty has caused traders to bid up petroleum's price even more than otherwise would be the case. To make matters worse, refiner profits are indeed rising, providing extra money to buy up oil before the next price hike. The paradox is that rising gasoline prices boost oil prices instead of the other way around. Then there's you -- if, that is, you've been smitten by the lure of the gas-guzzling behemoths so popular in recent years. Just as oil supplies have stabilized, you have added immensely to U.S. gasoline demand. The logical result of increasing demand during a time of stable to shrinking supply is, voila, higher prices. No conspiracy here. Just a case of what goes around, comes around. kcstar.com