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To: cfoe who wrote (12484)	6/17/2000 2:04:00 AM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 13582

CDMA-The Way To 3G,-Nortel> From the June 19, 2000 issue of Wireless Week Guest Opinion: On Wings Of Light I remember reading back in the early ?80s about a revolutionary new workstation from Xerox called the Alto. It had a unique, easy-to-use graphical user interface. It had a device called a mouse. And it had a personal, 5-megabyte hard disk drive. I remember incredulously wondering how one person could possibly use 5 megabytes. Now, of course, I have a laptop computer with a 12-gigabyte drive. According to the Yankee Group, there are about 90 million wireless users in the United States today. It is estimated that the number of mobile phone users worldwide will top 1 billion by 2003, and about 60 percent of them will have wireless access to the Internet. Moore?s Law says that computer processing power doubles every 18 months. Nortel?s Law says that where technology is concerned, demand always will exceed capacity and always faster than anticipated. There?s no doubt in my mind that demand for wireless data will exceed our wildest expectations. And it will happen sooner than we can imagine. That?s why it?s critical that operators begin planning now for optically optimized wireless networks. We have a vision that more than 60 percent of all Web searches will be conducted from a wireless device by 2005 and that by 2010 more than 50 percent of all e-business transactions will travel across a wireless network. Wings of light? Overkill, you might say? That?s what I thought about the 5 MB disk drive. That?s what some analysts thought about cellular. And that?s probably what ?Who Wants to Be A Millionaire? winners think about their checkbooks. As we introduce more bandwidth-intensive wireless applications and services, such as streaming audio and video, music downloads and ?e-life transactions??which tie e-commerce and e-business to entertainment?subscribers will stay online for longer periods of time and require even more bandwidth. The creation of a new wireless Internet brings lucrative revenue opportunities for operators. Those who act now to prepare their network stand a greater chance of becoming successful. Internet protocol will drive the revolution in the air much like it did on the ground. Wireless is no longer about terminals, base stations and standards wars. A wireless Internet packet-based network will become the standard in the new world of mobile IP services. The continued increase in traffic, coupled with more data-rich content and services, puts more pressure on the infrastructure and core backbone for backhauling the traffic. Our studies show it can cost about $200 per subscriber per year in backhaul costs. Putting in optical rings can save between $10 and $19 per subscriber per year as well as deliver another 20 percent savings in operating costs. We?ve found that optical technology can substantially reduce the cost of backbone networks by 25 to 50 percent. Marriage of this capacity with new third-generation radio technologies will be key in bringing the new high-performance wireless Internet to market and driving the cost of transport down from 37 cents to 4 cents per megabit. History has proven that big winners think big and act early. Apple leveraged Xerox?s innovations in much the same way we will take advantage of our existing wireless capabilities. Wireless operators who recognize that bandwidth and a profit-enabling infrastructure is key and act now to prepare their networks with optical technology will be ahead of the game and well-prepared to capitalize on the emerging wireless Internet. The revolution has begun. Anil Khatod is president of Internet Business Solutions for Nortel.

To: cfoe who wrote (12484)	6/17/2000 11:03:00 AM
From: METMAN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

is there any indication in the Korean press which would confirm or refute any claims of a manufacturing slowdown Found this from "Fleck's Column" (Fleckensteins Contrarian - FWIW ?) ...not to do with manufacturing, but with new subs.... so this is not necessarily as "important" ... but, if true, is still news to think about. I'm not so concerned about his opinion of an upcoming disaster in wireless companies stock prices (LOL), but this report (didn't hear it anywhere myself ... anyone hear it), if true, might explain some of the weakness in other component stocks this week: RFMD, TQNT, ANAD, etc. Although, this slowdown in sub growth is probably expected, and not considered a long term issue anyway - given the number of replacement phones bought in an ever maturing market like Korea ..... and ever expanding opportunities world-wide. (snippet from his column below) -metman link: siliconinvestor.com Date: June 15, 2000 Title: Not-so-busy signals from Korean wireless market paragraphs of interest There was some potentially important news out of Asia last night --specifically Korea -- where the wireless market experienced historic "negative growth" in May of just over 212,000 subscribers. This is the first time that has happened since the late 1980s. There are a variety of reasons why this occurred, not the least of which is the end of subsidies for cell phones. The Korean financial market itself was down last night about 6 percent. Why does this matter to us, you ask? Because a potential debacle is shaping up in the cell phone and cell phone component market, similar to what we experienced in the PC and PC component market in late 1995 and early 1996. Back then, the build-up before the successful Windows 95 launch drove PC sales dramatically. However, in that instance we had more than enough parts stored up in advance. We've got a similar situation with cell phones, where there is an expectation of tremendous growth, as I detailed last week, when in fact, growth may very well be slowing. Since many of the parts that go into cell phones are pure commodities -- capacitors, flash memory, etc. -- and since there is so much capacity being brought on and shortages exist (thereby creating double and triple ordering), the stage is set for a dramatic dislocation. The other important reason why this potential exists is that the valuations of the companies that make these commodities (using not exactly leading-edge type technology, even in the case of analog and digital devices), are just so extraordinary, and all the momentum-oriented funds and those with performance own them. The Sox itself is still up about 60 percent this year. Getting the picture. . . Yesterday, there was a rout in phone-oriented parts. Last night we got this information out of Korea, and today those same sorts of stocks were roughed up yet again. It's unusual these days to see the dots get connected. Lord knows, it never seems to happen in the PC world. In any case, the light bulb will go on one of these days, and the combination between those problems and the problems already existing in PCs will open a trap door in the Sox. That will be the end of the performance, and may also act as a catalyst for a huge decline in the market.<i/> (eom)