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To: goldsnow who wrote (54590)	6/17/2000 10:29:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 116871

Let's say that the Federal Reserve hasn't just succeeded in slowing the economy -- that Alan Greenspan & Co. have, in fact, stomped too hard on the brakes Then it is quite likely that Larry Kudlow will find himself making far more appearances on CNBC bragging about how he warned the Fed that were being too tight. It's an interesting question and I'm starting to lean toward the side that believes the Fed maybe has tightened too much, too fast. They should have spaced them out over more months, but obviously they felt some pressure to get it done before the election. However, I think that may come back to bite them in the butt. Monetary policy is blunt hammer, as I think we all acknowledge. It should not be wielded too aggressively. 6 consecutive rate hikes is too many, and quite frankly, I believe the the last the Fed was this aggressive, it resulted in the Asian contagion. As the oil drilling/IT comparison, I guess there could be a comparison that could be made. However, one of the drivers of the IT sector is the productivity increases that have occurred from increased speed of communications. There are still tremendous cost efficiencies that have yet to be realized due to lack of high-speed infrastructure. So while having lots of cheap oil doesn't necessarily increase productivity, having lots of bandwidth and updated IT systems seemingly does and I think that is a difference that causes the analogy to break down. The next couple of months will tell. Regards, Ron

To: goldsnow who wrote (54590)	6/18/2000 3:28:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Respond to of 116871

But now, let's take my "What if?" scenario to its logical conclusion. Let's say that the Federal Reserve hasn't just succeeded in slowing the economy -- that Alan Greenspan & Co. have, in fact, stomped too hard on the brakes Gulp, that's much the position I took 0.50% ago. But I also said it's likely he will still raise at least one more time. Long term gold analysis suggests that in mid june-sept 2001 gold will move to $350-$390 range. But you'll never hear me state that in public. Hutch