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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (6128)	6/17/2000 9:04:00 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Respond to of 14638

Copied from Qualcomm thread: CDMA-The Way To 3G,-Nortel> From the June 19, 2000 issue of Wireless Week Guest Opinion: On Wings Of Light I remember reading back in the early ?80s about a revolutionary new workstation from Xerox called the Alto. It had a unique, easy-to-use graphical user interface. It had a device called a mouse. And it had a personal, 5-megabyte hard disk drive. I remember incredulously wondering how one person could possibly use 5 megabytes. Now, of course, I have a laptop computer with a 12-gigabyte drive. According to the Yankee Group, there are about 90 million wireless users in the United States today. It is estimated that the number of mobile phone users worldwide will top 1 billion by 2003, and about 60 percent of them will have wireless access to the Internet. Moore?s Law says that computer processing power doubles every 18 months. Nortel?s Law says that where technology is concerned, demand always will exceed capacity and always faster than anticipated. There?s no doubt in my mind that demand for wireless data will exceed our wildest expectations. And it will happen sooner than we can imagine. That?s why it?s critical that operators begin planning now for optically optimized wireless networks. We have a vision that more than 60 percent of all Web searches will be conducted from a wireless device by 2005 and that by 2010 more than 50 percent of all e-business transactions will travel across a wireless network. Wings of light? Overkill, you might say? That?s what I thought about the 5 MB disk drive. That?s what some analysts thought about cellular. And that?s probably what ?Who Wants to Be A Millionaire? winners think about their checkbooks. As we introduce more bandwidth-intensive wireless applications and services, such as streaming audio and video, music downloads and ?e-life transactions??which tie e-commerce and e-business to entertainment?subscribers will stay online for longer periods of time and require even more bandwidth. The creation of a new wireless Internet brings lucrative revenue opportunities for operators. Those who act now to prepare their network stand a greater chance of becoming successful. Internet protocol will drive the revolution in the air much like it did on the ground. Wireless is no longer about terminals, base stations and standards wars. A wireless Internet packet-based network will become the standard in the new world of mobile IP services. The continued increase in traffic, coupled with more data-rich content and services, puts more pressure on the infrastructure and core backbone for backhauling the traffic. Our studies show it can cost about $200 per subscriber per year in backhaul costs. Putting in optical rings can save between $10 and $19 per subscriber per year as well as deliver another 20 percent savings in operating costs. We?ve found that optical technology can substantially reduce the cost of backbone networks by 25 to 50 percent. Marriage of this capacity with new third-generation radio technologies will be key in bringing the new high-performance wireless Internet to market and driving the cost of transport down from 37 cents to 4 cents per megabit. History has proven that big winners think big and act early. Apple leveraged Xerox?s innovations in much the same way we will take advantage of our existing wireless capabilities. Wireless operators who recognize that bandwidth and a profit-enabling infrastructure is key and act now to prepare their networks with optical technology will be ahead of the game and well-prepared to capitalize on the emerging wireless Internet. The revolution has begun. Anil Khatod is president of Internet Business Solutions for Nortel.