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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (40502)	6/18/2000 7:31:00 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

i'd rank Canada ahead of the u.s. generally for investing prospects at this juncture. however, many Americans don't have accounts to trade in canadian stocks or just don't want to. two you might consider up here are closed end funds, canadian general investments and united corporations. neither has performed well lately although the first one was a darling for awhile. their discounts are really high. you can check these in barrons. mike b might be solicited for his opinion here. there is also a canuck first australia fund, fap, and the discount on it is quite good. if you like junior oils, we have some that have moved a ton, like ranger, but there are others. i had one called compton and it went up nearly 50 % for me. canadian pacific was mentioned in barrons this weekend too and with its ownership of pan canadian petroleum may be a value play. pcp may be spun off at some point. i try to link up a weekly column from a toronto ta analyst, you may be interested in that. one junior silver i started to play and have mentioned is bay (corner bay). why not head over to that thread and have a look-see ! ike

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (40502)	6/18/2000 7:36:00 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 42523

from the toronto star today... Which strategy to choose? History can help you decide Several readers have asked why I have made fewer stock recommendations over the past several months. The answer is that I thought the readers were better served if I focused more on stock sectors and market timing. There are four common strategies investors can use in their approach to equity investing: a buy and hold strategy, stock picking, sector selection and market timing. Market timing is used by an experienced investor to avoid those nasty annual corrections. This investor reduces risk by being out of the market and into cash about one-third of the time. A buy and hold strategy is suitable only for young investors who have the time to spend in the market and can therefore accept the risk of being fully invested all the time. Sector selection is currently the best choice for most investors because it can be used as a guide in stock and mutual fund selection. Sector selection can also be a part of various timing models. Investors can apply a simple test to the Toronto Stock Exchange subindices to get a handle on the profit or loss potential of the various stock sectors. A simple momentum study applied to the monthly closes of each subindex will do the job. I use two moving averages to create my study. I create a histogram by subtracting a 26-month moving average from a 12-month moving average. A buy is generated when the histogram turns positive. The TSE oil and gas subgroup, led by Petro-Canada, signalled a buy on the close of Jan. 31 this year, and the industrial products subgroup, led by Nortel Networks Corp. signalled a buy on July 30 last year. I can also expand on this momentum study to do a little stock selection. The last stock I recommended as a buy was Canadian Occidental Petroleum Ltd. on March 12 this year at $31.10, because the company was a member of our then-favoured oil and gas sector. The oil and gas stocks have been on the move all year, however, and are now too pricey for my low-risk taste. I'd prefer to seek out a new emerging sector that is just now generating a buy signal on our histogram. That sector is the conglomerates subgroup, of which Canadian Pacific Ltd. is a leading member. Before considering whether CP is a buy, I need to switch to a chart of weekly prices and apply the same momentum study. I find the weekly histogram is also just now giving us a buy signal, and this will improve the chances of being successful on the trade. Our chart this week is that of the monthly closes of CP, plotted on a logarithmic chart to show percentage changes. A new bull cycle will get under way if the stock moves above the current resistance level of about $36. Keep in mind that the last bull market in CP was a double, beginning in 1995 with the stock around $23. A new bull cycle should take CP well beyond the 1998 peak of $46. Based on our monthly and weekly histograms, I committed to buy CP at the market at mid-afternoon Friday, at $34.85. No stock purchase is complete without the provision for a bad decision, so I placed a stop loss at 8 per cent under my buy price. I will now let the stock go to work for a few months and free me up to look for more low-risk opportunities.