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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arun gera who wrote (74194)	6/18/2000 7:45:00 PM
From: The Verve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Arun, <It is quite clear that Piecyk just tried to end up with a nice round number of $1000 (or $250 today). My main objection is that it is impossible for anybody to predict what is going to happen in 10 years. I would trust an analysis that targets the projections for the next three years.> The fact that you so casually dismiss Piecyks analysis because it is '10 years out' shows that you haven't put much thought into it. I have to say, his analysis is certainly aggressive. Many analysts don't like to forecast TEN years into the future, but is it so hard to justify? Isn't it likely nearly the ENTIRE WORLD will be using a CDMA based device in 10 years? Isn't it likely that Q will, at the very least, be the recipient of a royalty on every CDMA based appliance? How many cell phone users will we have in 2004? I've heard a few sources say 1.3 billion. We have nearly 1/2 a bil now. It's likely that we'll have 2 billion cell phone users in 2010 and it's likely that we'll also have another huge amount of wireless appliances also connected. We might have 3 billion CDMA based phones and appliances connected in 2010. Does Piecyks analysis still seem so far fetched? Piecyks analysis didn't even figure in Q's ASIC profits (assuming they don't jettison the division for some reason) I'd like to suggest Arun that rather than blowing off an analysis so quickly and matter of factly...just open your eyes, look around today, and envision the future. Is the world gonna stop using cell phones? Absolutely not. I can't run my life without one. Cell phone growth is explosive and it ain't gonna stop anytime soon. It's projected network appliances will be among us by the millions soon. Peicyk may be a young guy, but he ain't no idiot. Yes, his analysis did go out 10 years, but 10 years is how far one has to go out, to get to the point where it's easy to calculate the opportunity. Qualcomms opportunity can't be quantified easily in two years, due to the mish mash of technologies everyone is using, but ten years gets you to the point where nearly all is based on being connected to a CDMA network. So, if you wanna argue that 10 years is too far out, do so. I'd like to argue that if we're growing from 300 million in 1999 to 1.3 billion cell phones by 2004, 2 billion CDMA based appliances by 2010 may prove to be conservative. And his year 2000 $250.00 price target WILL prove to have been conservative. Don't be so eager to dismiss Arun, that sort of approach can cost you a lot of money... Verve