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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kemble s. matter who wrote (158001)	6/18/2000 10:55:00 PM
From: mepci	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

Kemble: I just looked at consensus estimates by analysts on naz url. Here they are: 1Q - .19(already in). 2Q - .21 3Q - .28 4Q - .27 That is a total of .95 . I think they already are hyping the stock here. You are using .68 for y2k. Dell says .61 after dilution (including the .07 chargeoff). I will take Dell's words. So I will use .61 for y2k earnings. At .95 that is 55% increase in earnings from last year. Certainly at 1.02, you are shooting for a 70% increase in revenues. I just can't buy that. If I want use analysts estimate then at current price the pe is 50 and the peg is less than 1. If the analysts confidence level is really that high, their customers would have been buying like crazy. I guess I will still remain optimistically cautious and still keep my estimates at .80-.85 and still shoot for no more than 60 for dell share price by the end of the year. I will look more closely at your micro-analysis. PS: If the earnings are that good, it won't stop at .95, it may go to 1.02, because Dell will make a ton of money on option trading. I may say it is always feasible, but highly unlikely.

To: kemble s. matter who wrote (158001)	6/28/2000 4:51:00 PM
From: mepci	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176388

Kemble: Your whisper nos. Let us start from the begining: 1Q: .16 2Q: .21 3Q: .22 4Q: .26 Seems to me you got the 3q & 4q reversed. Your second estimate: 1Q: .19 2Q: .23 3Q: .24 4Q: .28 Total: .94 Adding Dell Ventures(actually financing and investment profits): 1Q: .19 2Q: .25 3Q: .27 4Q: .30 Original Whisper for 4Q was .16. I think your 2Q is bloated. But .23 is feasible. Some analysts are actually predicting .27 for 3Q. So we leave it where you expect it to be. But .30 for 4q. You sure are getting carried away. I will put the 4Q at .22. That brings us to: 1Q: .19 2Q: .23 3q: .27, and 4Q: .22 Total: .91 That is a 50% increase over Y2K. (y2K real is .61). If that happens Dell price range could be: 45 to 69 by feb announcement date. Let us be cautious and not shoot for more than 60.