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To: Didi who wrote (292)	6/19/2000 6:15:00 AM
From: Didi	Respond to of 1115

T/A by Arthur Hill, StockCharts.com... Thank you very very much, Art ;-) ;-) ;-). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- stockcharts.com Edited: >>>Nasdaq 100: 17-Jun: Trading Position = Bear-Hold. While momentum remains bullish, price action over the last 5 days is mixed and breadth statistics have weakened, which keeps position favoring the bear. Position Points: 3 potentially bearish candlestick patterns have formed over the past two weeks, but these have been immediately countered with a strong advance. Until there is confirmation, I will not turn totally bearish, and I will not list the last two patterns in my candlestick section. 5/6-June: A doji with long lower shadow (red arrow) and candlestick with long lower shadow, black body and weak close, both countered by outside reversal day. 12-June: A bearish engulfing pattern countered with outside reversal day. 14-June: A dark cloud cover pattern countered with strong advance. The trading range bound by 3600 and 3850 holds the key to my next rating change: a close above 3850 would be bullish and a close below 3600 would be more bearish. A 50% retracement of the decline from 4816 to 2897 would take the index to 3850. Judging from two weeks of sideways action, 3850 remains the key. Q: Why do I lean bearish with the PPO trending up and CMF near +10%? A: Over the past two weeks, breadth statistics have weakened. Take a look at tour stops 9, 10 and 11. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) continues to inch higher, but the PPO-Histogram has started to move lower. Chaikin Money Flow got a jump start late in the week and moved to around +10%. While it has been mostly positive over the past two weeks, the indicator is not a beacon of strength. Support: 3600 ? Marked by recent trading range support. Resistance: 3850 ? Marked by April reaction high and recent resistance. --------------------------- Key Candlesticks 2-Jun: After advancing over 20% less than 2 weeks, a doji (red arrow) formed to indicate some indecision. This was followed by a candlestick with a long lower shadow of similar length and a weak close to confirm the resistance level. 2-Jun: After breaking support, a piercing pattern (gray arrow) with a relatively long lower shadow formed. I believe that this is one candlestick to remember. The open was lower than the previous close, the lower shadow indicates selling pressure overtaken by buying pressure and the close shows a very strong reversal that surpasses the midpoint of the long black candlestick?s body. The piercing pattern was followed by a sharp advance above 3300 to confirm it as bullish. 8-May: After a flat opening, the index traded lower and surpassed the previous day?s opening level to form the quasi-bearish engulfing pattern. This weakness follows the reversal at resistance (3850) and a close below 3500 would confirm the bearish nature of the pattern. 28-Apr: I am encouraged by the long lower shadows and the ability of the index to close off of the lows. The move above short-term resistance at 3720 is also heartening and could lead to a test of the support break around 4100. Any rally though is still considered reactionary and within the confines of a larger downtrend. 17-Apr: After breaking support, a large piercing pattern (magenta arrow) formed to mark the start of a reversal from oversold levels. For a piercing pattern to be valid, the white candle should retrace more than 50% of the black candlestick?s body. 10-Apr: A large bearish engulfing pattern formed (red arrow) below resistance and indicated that selling pressure remains intense. 4-Apr: A huge hammer formed and the lower shadow touched support at 3700 (gray arrow). The follow through was a little delayed, but this can be expected after such a gut-wrenching turnaround. 16-Mar: A hammer formed at support and the follow through on Friday indicates that the rally may have further to go (gray arrow). However, it is probably not enough to bet on though. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly View: 17-Jun: Investing Position = Bear-Hold. With only the first bounce in momentum and the index below key resistance, my long-term position continues to favor the bear. Position Points: I previously though this reaction rally might overshoot and move to around 4000. However, with the recent stalling, I am wondering if a reversal might occur sooner. Further indecision was reflected this week with the small change from open to close. And, a bit of selling pressure was evident in the long lower shadow. Do major lows occur with advances on below average volume? IMHO, they do not. From January to mid-March, volume accelerated on the upside. There was a lull for a few weeks, and then volume picked up again on the downside. Now that the index is selling at 20% off, volume remains below average, indicating that there is not a lot of confidence amongst buyers. On 9-June the index formed a hammer (red arrow) that was followed by a sharp advance. The enthusiastic advance was met the following week with the indecision of a doji (black arrow). The index broke the trendline extending up from Oct-98 and the Apr-00 reaction low. The recent rally places the index back above these key breaks, but below resistance. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) bounced off of severe oversold levels, but did little to foreshadow the recent advance. Even though it moved above its moving average, this is the first bounce and I would prefer to play off a higher low. The price relative also bounced and moved above its 10-week EMA, but remains below its April reaction high. While the April decline may have been overdone, I believe we should sit up and take notice of the force behind the decline and the weakness of the reaction rallies. The index declined from 4800 to 3100 in about 7 weeks. It was enough to move daily Chaikin Money Flow to its lowest levels since Sept-98. Market breadth statistics moved to their most bearish levels in many months as well. And, the weekly PPO moved to its lowest level since Oct-98. This does not appear to be an ordinary sell-off, correction or decline and may mark a major turning point in the index. It may not happen overnight, but I believe that the next few months are not likely to be very fun for longs. There is a lot of eager money out there and the reaction rallies are likely to be sharp and convincing. The index could retrace 50% of its recent decline and advance to around 4000. However, I believe that plenty of risk remains and prefer to sit it out. Support: 3100 ? Marked by April and May reaction lows. Resistance: 3850 ? Marked by May reaction high and recent resistance. Key Candlesticks 9-June: The enthusiastic advance was met with the indecision of a weekly doji (black arrow). 26-May: A hammer (red arrow) formed after the break of support. It is hard to call a support break convincing when a hammer forms on the break. The close off of the low indicates buying pressure and the recent advance confirms the hammer as bullish. 14-Apr: A large black candlestick formed to confirm the hanging man as bearish (magenta arrow). 7-Apr: A large hanging man formed (blue arrow), but managed to close right at support. - Arthur Hill<<<

To: Didi who wrote (292)	6/19/2000 11:43:00 AM
From: Guardian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1115

so jubak recommends adding bvsn and also selling it. fascinating logic or very poor editing. ADD: BroadVision, Inc. BVSN 6/16/00 $49.813 $49.813 +$0.438 0.00% I'm adding BroadVision (BVSN) back to Jubak's Picks with a December 2000 target of $65 a share. I first recommended BroadVision in my November 5 column, "3 stock picks to go with the mo'," when the stock was near $28 a share. I then sold the position out of Jubak's Picks on March 10 at $86.08 because the stock then appeared too pricey to me. After falling to a mid-April bottom near $27, the stock has rallied, but it's still a good 40% below the March 10 price. And in the last week or so, it has looked poised to break decisively above resistance near $50. As I wrote in " No place to hide in tech stocks," my reasons for liking the stock haven't changed since my initial November buy. One new deal also deserves special mention: BroadVision has partnered with Bank of America (BAC) to form a new company that will build internal corporate Web sites for businesses. Hewlett-Packard (HWP) also is a partner in the deal. SELL: BroadVision, Inc. BVSN 3/10/00 $86.083 $49.813 -42.13% After watching BroadVision (BVSN) climb 220% since I added it to Jubak's Picks at $26.94 just about four months ago ("3 stock picks to go with the mo,") I think much of the company's near-term future is in the stock price. And with volatility likely to increase in the technology sector as we head toward summer, I just don't find the risk/reward ratio that appealing. I'll be selling my personal position, as per our rules, three days after the column is posted.