Subj: THE BULL MARKET REPORT DAILY for MONDAY, JUNE 19, 2000
Date: 6/19/00 5:54:17 PM Central Daylight Time
From: dailybullmkt-owner@listbot.com (The Bull Market Report)
To: gmullineau@aol.com (List Member)
The Bull Market Report - bull-market.com
THE BULL MARKET REPORT DAILY for MONDAY, JUNE 19, 2000
Volume 31, #13
On the Internet, there is no Shortage of Information, but Wisdom is a
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MARKET INDICES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
MONDAY, June 19, 2000
INDEX AND CLOSE CHG%: DAY WEEK MO YR
UNITED STATES MARKETS
DOW JONES 10558 109 1.0 1.0 0 -8
THE NASDAQ 3990 129 3.4 3.4 17 -2
THE S&P 500 1486 21 1.5 1.5 5 1
RUSSELL 2000 523 9 1.8 1.8 10 4
G. SACHS INTERNET 473 8 1.8 1.8 14 -34
TREASURY BONDS
10 YEAR 5.99%, up 2 basis points +2bp -30bp -44bp
30 YEAR 5.89%, up 1 basis point +1bp -13bp -60bp
EUROPEAN MARKETS
UK FT-SE 100 6490 -36 -0.6 -0.6 2 -6
FRANCE CAC 40 6505 49 0.8 0.8 1 9
GERMANY DAX 7199 67 1.0 1.0 1 3
ASIAN MARKETS
JAPAN NIKKEI 225 16591 273 1.7 1.7 2 -12
HONGKONG HANGSENG 16267 -167 -1.0 -1.0 11 -4
AMERICAS MARKETS
BRAZIL BOVESPA 16850 425 2.6 2.6 13 -1
CANADA TSE 300 10137 101 1.0 1.0 10 20
MEXICO BOLSA 6551 98 1.5 1.5 10 -8
COMMENTARY
The market rallied sharply on low volume. Do we CARE about low volume?
Not on your life. What we care about was that the Nasdaq was up 3.4% and
the Dow gained back over 40% of what it lost on Friday, despite Honeywell
(HON, $41) losing 8 points, moving the Dow 40 points downwards. Without
the Honeywell move, the Dow would have been up 150 points.
Biotech was on fire today probably because we renamed our Drug and Biotech
newsletter to The Bull Market Biotech Investor. Just kidding. But there
were three double digit returns in our portfolio: Celera (CRA, $120, up
14), Affymetrix (AFFX, $193, up 19) and Human Genome Sciences ($HGSI,
$147, up 13). And except for Pfizer (PFE, $47, down 1), every one of the
stocks in our portfolio was up today. Remember our News Flash on Thursday
last week? We bought Gene Logic (GLGC) at $35 on our buy stop on Friday
and today it closed up 25% today to $45. Wow. Our price target is an
aggressive $60. It seems we are on the right path here and remember, they
have $255 million in cash. "No brainer" comes to mind here. :)
The Financials came back a bit today, with Merrill Lynch (MER, $118, up 4)
the big winner, First Union (FTE, $29) surging 8% higher, and Charles
Schwab adding a point to come within a whisker of $35. Remember Schwabbie
just split their shares 3-2 so this is the equivalent of $52 on the old
shares. The all time high is $44.75 and we could make a strong argument
for the firm to set new highs later this year. After all, are people
canceling their online brokerage accounts lately? We didn't think so.
Internet stocks were strong too led by Inktomi (INKT, $138, up 22, 19%)
and RealNetworks (RNWK, $53, up 7, 15%). Just when you think the game is
over, you see a day like this and realize that this is where you need to
be if you are young and aggressive! Or old and aggressive ,like us! Not
participating was Amazon (AMZN, $45) that saw its shares drop another
point to $45. Wall Street is watching and waiting for profitability . and
selling shares at the same time.
Crude oil is now down below $30 again, so Oil stocks were a bit lower.
We're not concerned until we see crude below $24 a barrel.
Nokia (NOK) set a NEW HIGH today adding another 3 points to close at $61.
Is this a great company or a great company!
MicroStrategy (MSTR, $42, up 4) received $125 million in a private
placement of convertible preferred.
The bull market is back, but really, the bull market never left. Don't
let the doomsdayers do you in. The Internet is exploding; Wireless is
exploding; Biotech is booming, Financials are hot. The bull lives on and
on. Invest now for 2005 and 2010. You and your kids will be sending me
thank you notes!
Good investing.
Todd Shaver
Editor in Chief
The Bull Market Report
Washington, DC
IN THIS ISSUE
1. NORTEL, HP TO OFFER WIRELESS INTERNET
2. LUCENT ACQUIRES HERMANN TECHNOLOGY
3. AOL TO START INTERACTIVE TELEVISION
4. AT&T BUYS WIRELESS SYSTEMS
5. EXCITE@HOME LAUNCHES HIGH SPEED SERVICE IN JAPAN
6. INTEL TO INVEST $2 BILLION IN IRELAND FACILITY
7. YAHOO TO BE ACQUISITIVE IN EUROPE
8. BIOMIRA PRESS RELEASE WE MISSED
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1. NORTEL, HP TO OFFER WIRELESS INTERNET
Nortel Networks (NT, $68, unch.) and Hewlett-Packard (HWP, $118, up 4)
plan to work together to develop mobile portal, wireless, networking and
e-commerce services. The companies said their global strategy is to
deliver ''profitable, seamless, high-speed access to information anytime,
anywhere.'' The new technology is designed to allow users to roam between
networks without losing their Internet connection.
According to Nortel, the global market for wireless infrastructure is
expected to reach $200 billion by 2003.
COMMENT: We'd like to know where Nortel got its numbers from but we don't
disbelieve them. Did you focus on these numbers? Wireless infrastructure
will be a $200 billion business by 2003. That's only three years from
now! As they say, that is HUGE! We want to be invested here.
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2. LUCENT ACQUIRES HERRMANN TECHNOLOGY FOR $440 MILLION
Lucent Technologies (LU, $61, up 1) has acquired Hermann Technology, Inc.,
a leading supplier of devices for next-generation dense wavelength
division multiplexing (DWDM) optical networks. The acquisition
strengthens Lucent's ability to quickly deliver highly integrated,
cost-effective opto-electronic component solutions for the fast-growing
optical networking market. The acquisition will be an all stock
transaction valued at about $438 million.
COMMENT: The big get bigger. The big get more profitable. The big are
the ones we want to own!
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3. AOL TO START INTERACTIVE TELEVISION
America Online Inc.(AOL, $54, down .50) is starting an interactive
television service that will allow TV viewers to chat online and send
e-mail. The service will first be offered in selected markets including
Phoenix, Sacramento, and Baltimore and it will be available through a
set-top box made by Phillips Electronics. The set-top box and wireless
keyboard will only be sold at Circuit City Stores (CC, $35, unch.) and
online through America Online in mid-July. AOLTV will be offered to AOL
members for an additional $14.95 per month, while non-members will pay
$24.95.
COMMENT: This is a big move and one that could be quite lucrative. We
are still watching and waiting. If you are long the stock, we would hold
here, but you could expect to see the stock in the 40's if the overall
market sours. If you don't own any but wish to, set buy stops at say $56
and $58 and $60, in case the stock starts to move.
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4. AT&T BUYS WIRELESS SYSTEMS
AT&T (T, $34, unch.) will spend $3.3 billion to buy wireless systems from
Vodafone AirTouch (VOD, $49, down 1), GTE (GTE, $69, up 3) and PrimeCo
PCS. The deals give AT&T new wireless customers in the San Francisco, San
Diego and Houston markets. AT&T is spending some of the $10.6 billion it
raised from the AT&T Wireless (AWE, $29 , up 1) IPO in April.
The move adds 1.3 million customers to AT&T's wireless customer base and
establishes a foothold in the last three cities in the top 15 U.S. service
markets that do not have AT&T wireless services. In San Francisco, AT&T
is buying the remaining interest in a wireless partnership from Vodafone
AirTouch. In San Diego, it is buying 100 percent of GTE's wireless
operations, while in Houston, it is buying the system owned by PrimeCo.
AT&T Wireless expects about 1,400 employees will join the company as a
result of the transaction.
COMMENT: Great deal for Ma Bell. We're telling you again: The stock at
this price is VERY CHEAP. There is lots of competition and there are lots
of naysayers. We just hope they're short, because when the stock hits
$40, they'll be forced to buy back their shares and force the stock
higher. Don't count AT&T out of this wireless game. We LOVE AT&T
Wireless at this price.
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5. EXCITE@HOME LAUNCHES HIGH SPEED SERVICE IN JAPAN
Excite@Home Corp. (ATHM, $19, unch.) is set to launch its high-speed
Internet service in Japan. The company said its affiliate @Home Japan is
partnering with Jupiter Telecommunications Co. Ltd., the largest Japanese
cable company, and trading company Sumitomo Corp. to roll out the
high-speed service in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In April, the company
said it expects its overseas ventures to record about $80 million in total
revenue this year, an increase of 300 percent over 1999. .
COMMENT: A small deal in the whole scheme of things, but a solid move for
@Home that should bring profits to the bottom line. The company certainly
need some!
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6. INTEL TO INVEST $2 BILLION IN IRISH FACILITY
Continuing it's expansion this year to keep pace with the increasing
demand, Intel Corporation (INTC, $136) will invest $2 billion to expand
manufacturing operations by adding a new wafer fabrication facility at its
European manufacturing operations in Ireland. Much of the expansion this
year, including the addition to the Ireland plant, revolves around Intel's
switch to 12-inch silicon wafers in the manufacturing process. The move
to bigger wafers is critical as it allows the company to be more
efficient. More chips can be placed on bigger wafers, which reduces waste.
COMMENT: Analysts from several firms upped earnings estimates for the
June quarter. The market loved it and the stock rallied big time, jumping
10 points or 8%
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7. YAHOO TO BE ACQUISITIVE IN EUROPE
YAHOO INC (YHOO, $139, down 2) is gearing up for an "aggressive"
acquisition spree in Europe to keep a step ahead of Internet rivals as a
wave of consolidation sweeps the industry, its co-founder said last week.
The recent acquisition of Internet search engine Lycos by Spain's Terra
Networks "reinforces the fact that we all have to look outside the U.S.
for growth and the next big wave," Jerry Yang told Reuters in an
interview. "We will see similar consolidation opportunities in Europe as
we did in the United States and you will see us being very opportunistic
and aggressive," he said, noting Yahoo had made around a dozen purchases
in the United States, from small technology firms to larger Internet
companies.
COMMENT: Yahoo will remain the leader. You heard it here first (a long
time ago!)
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8. BIOMIRA PRESS RELEASE WE MISSED
The following press release was issued by Biomira on May 22nd, and we
never got a chance to focus on it. Now we do.
Biomira Inc. (BIOM, $10,56, up 2%) announced data from a Phase I study of
its BLP25 vaccine for non-small cell lung cancer at the 36th Annual
Meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). Martin
Palmer, MD, and colleagues from the Cross Cancer Institute in Edmonton,
Alberta, Canada, reported that the Phase I data shows that BLP25 vaccine
was well tolerated by patients. In addition, in five out of 12 evaluable
patients with Stage IIIb and Stage IV non-small cell lung cancer, BLP25
vaccine elicited a cytotoxic T-Lymphocyte response.
Biomira also released today final survival data on patients from this
Phase I trial treated with either a 20 mg or 200 mg dose of BLP25 vaccine.
The median survival time of patients treated with the 20 mg dose regimen
was 5.5 months from the time of entry to the study. Patients treated with
a 200 mg dose of BLP25 vaccine had a median survival of 14.7 months from
time of entry to the study.
The Company is currently testing patients in a Phase II trial using a
higher dose and frequency protocol of 1000 mg to determine if the new dose
shows improved clinical benefit. This is prior to initiating a trial with
BLP25 vaccine in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer that could
potentially lead to regulatory approvable. The Phase II trial has been
fully enrolled, with six out of eight evaluable non-small cell lung cancer
patients experiencing significant T-cell proliferative responses against
the target antigen.
BLP25 is a 25-amino-acid sequence of the MUC-1 cancer mucin encapsulated
in a liposomal delivery system. Liposomes, or fat droplets smaller than
red blood cells, are believed to enhance recognition of the cancer antigen
by the immune system and facilitate better delivery. The MUC-1 mucin is
an antigen found on the surface of 90% of common cancers.
According to the American Cancer Society, there are approximately 172,000
new cases in the U.S. of non-small cell lung cancer (smoker's cancer) each
year and 160,000 deaths in the U.S., making it the number one cause of
death among all cancers. Biomira estimates the market potential is
represented by the treatment of approximately 100,000 patients each year
in the U.S. alone.
COMMENT: What we missed originally was the fact that they are testing
another drug for cancer and it appears to have lengthened lives in a good
number of cases. Now we know, and think even more highly of the prospects
for the firm. Biomira is still a small cap worth less than $500 million.
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