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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (26548)	6/20/2000 10:04:00 AM
From: TigerPaw	Respond to of 54805

Moore takes less care with some of his details than he should Perhaps that is an indication that Gorilla Gaming is not a formula that you can plug companies into. Few companies have all the characteristics and it is not always clear what represents a real barrier to competition. TP

To: tekboy who wrote (26548)	6/20/2000 2:52:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

tekboy: On Nokia, suggest caveat emptor. The conventional wisdom is that Nokia will move to become a leader in CDMA as well as GSM and will therefore be a major supplier of all forms of wireless. That may happen of course. But I see very high risks in Asian competition vs Nokia both in "pretty boxes" (the outside), and technology leadership (using Qualcomm as the R&D house - the inside). But most dangerously for Nokia is data - that could be Nokia's Achilles heel. The further out you look, the more vulnerable Nokia is IMO. This could change depending on what (if any) relationship Nokia works out with Qualcomm. But even under a good positive arrangement with the Q, Nokia has lost very valuable time and experience with high speed data, while concentrating on such poor second choices as GPRS / EDGE et al. Just IMO based on some observation and thought - looking ahead beyond next year. Best. Cha2

To: tekboy who wrote (26548)	6/21/2000 9:20:00 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tek, << My prediction as to the order of the announcements is as follows: first, JDSU/ETEK merger approval; second, QCOM/NOK licensing deal; third, GMST/TVGIA merger approval. The next 3-6 weeks could be very interesting... >> I like your predictions. May they all become a reality. Each would be very positive. Decision from Brazil due today on spectrum. I am not calling the shot, but if 1900 MHz, it will be very Q positive, IMO. - Eric -

To: tekboy who wrote (26548)	6/22/2000 7:24:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

tekboy: Re your predictions: "My prediction as to the order of the announcements is as follows: first, JDSU/ETEK merger approval; second, QCOM/NOK licensing deal; third, GMST/TVGIA merger approval. The next 3-6 weeks could be very interesting..." OK, the first has happened; the third is delayed, (probably politics); and total, complete mindboggling confusion on the second. But as you know, IMO whatever Nokia decides to do (if anything) is a vital matter for Nokia, a yawn for the Q (except for those on "the street" who only look across the Atlantic to Europe and never across the Pacific to Asia) ((Well, maybe a positive short run kick up in the Q's price if Nokia signs - since perception rules, not substance on "the street")) "Phone" suppliers - with 1X, then HDR, data capability - are coming up fast on the outside, inside and the middle from Korea, Japan, Taiwan and (next year) mainland China. Nokia will be left watching and weeping unless on board the CDMA / HDR data tornado which is gathering now. Just an observation of mine of course. Best. Cha2