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To: Sweet Ol who wrote (54687)	6/20/2000 11:43:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

John, the US trade deficit is big even if including services. The government reported separately that a broader measure of the U.S. trade deficit that also includes financial transactions widened to a record $102.3 billion in the first quarter. The growth in the current account deficit came as overseas investors earned more on their U.S. holdings, Commerce Department figures showed. The shortfall was $96.2 billion in the fourth quarter. bloomberg.com Haim

To: Sweet Ol who wrote (54687)	6/20/2000 11:57:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 99985

John R. Haley :"As we become more and more of a service economy we continue to export services which don't get measured as part of the trade. ". Great: So we are -stimulating growth in the world economy which will -raise their consumption and price of oil. -their inflation through higher prices at which point their previously low prices ( products exported to us ) will no longer be able to offset our inflation though their ( no longer ) cheap products. At which point the value of the dollar will fall. When it does it is going to turn ugly for the US because we will no longer be able to export our principal inflationary product: printed greenbacks, TA Message #54687 from John R. Haley at Jun 20, 2000 11:37 AM ET When I took Econ in collage (a half century ago) I learned about the dangers of the trade deficit that we were starting to run up. I have been worrying about it for 40 some odd years and finally I have concluded that the world has changed so much that the trade deficit does not apply like it once did. Maybe we need to update the theory. As we become more and more of a service economy we continue to export services which don't get measured as part of the trade. I agree that it is worrisome, especially the recent spurt. But I just don't understand the cause and effect between trade deficits and our economy. Best to all. JH TA