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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (14605)	6/21/2000 11:26:00 AM
From: Rillinois	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Dipy, Re: For one thing, people could have made more money in a money-market account or CD than in the Dow/S&P500/Nasdaq/Total-stock market YTD. Since when is it Bob's objective to side-step a 6 month sideways market. I mean when Bob failed to identify the Asian crisis, and the subsequent drop of more than 20% in the S&P, he focused in on how important it was to hold on and not on how he had failed to time the market. Which, BTW, was the reason Truman Bradley, a once staunch defender of Bob's, decided to dump Bob as his market guru. Message 5677548 Furthermore, it sounds like your expectations are pretty lofty. After 5 years of 20+% returns, you seem to be complaining that the market is not on pace to repeat that performance this year. Who cares if you could have done better in a money market fund? You know very well that equities are not always the best performing asset class. They are still positive for the year and even if they were slightly negative for the year, so what? The question should be was it warranted to take the risk of being out of the market and incur the capital gains tax liabilities at the beginning of the year. Once again, Bob's objective is not to swap into the best performing asset class any given year, it is to avoid a bear market and get back in at a point that would justify the exit point. And with a lot less heartburn, I might add. What are you talking about!!! Since 12/31, the range of the S&P on a closing basis has been +3.9% and -9.3%. If you can't handle that volatility, you shouldn't be in equities. Again, Bob used to look at drops of 10% as normal and drops of 20% as indiscriminate selling. Why should the current swings be any different? Brinker is saying that what we are seeing in the Nasdaq is just a bear-market rally and it will be back to "misery time" again in a few months. What the Nasdaq does is irrelevant. The timing model is based on the S&P 500. Any predictions on the Nasdaq are simply an attempt to divert attention away from the broad market. Let's not forget when the Nasdaq was roaring ahead at the beginning of the year Brinker ignored it saying that the Nasdaq is just a sector of the broad market and has no place in his timing of the broad market. In fact, I believe he went on to say that sector timing is very difficult and that there was a lack of history for the index. BTW, does anybody remember when Bob proudly said he was BEARISH on oil when a caller called up who was over exposed in an oil stock. Oil was at $10/barrell back then. Ouch! Best Regards. Rillinois