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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hueyone who wrote (26579)	6/20/2000 5:16:00 PM
From: m2ranger	Respond to of 54805

Huey, Had a couple of cov. calls assigned and used some of the proceeds to get back into WIND. Their new "Cirrus" platform has great potential, IMHO. Rick

To: hueyone who wrote (26579)	6/22/2000 2:49:00 AM
From: bythepark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Wind Update and this week's first-ever 'Analyst Day' Huey, Thank you for keeping an eye on WIND's progress. You are correct about no 'Tornadic Activity '- but according to attendee Allen Benn, the meeting was an exceptionally informative one ... and the necessary ingredients for exceptional growth are coming together. --alan Message 13923879 [snip] > 3. While most analysts probably knew about WIND's new organizational > structure, I doubt any of them fully appreciated the value-proposition > embedded in each vertical business unit. Curt Schacker, Marketing VP, tackled > this deficiency by fleshing out the organizational skeleton, first by > presenting the market forces that demand increasingly high-valued vertical > solutions, and second with an illustrative walk-through. He presented the > following about DSL: > > WIND is in 47 of 52 known company's DSL products, or 90%. This is not the same > as market share, but is indicative of a dominant market presence. DSL CACG is > 230% according to credible market research. > > Growth X Share = Units > > ASP for DSL modems averages about $1 when WIND supplies the underlying OS and > development environment. WRS Networks is developing "Tornado for DSL", modeled > after Tornado for Managed Switches, which enables easy addition of > second-generation features like VoIP, ATM, Multiple protocols, Network Address > Translation, VPN, Firewalls and other Security. The royalty ASP for Tornado > for DSL will be in the $3 to $5 range, depending. > > Units X ASP = Revenues > > When I plugged these number into a spreadsheet, assuming 1999 DSL units = > 200,000, and a gradual transition to high-value sales, I got DSL revenues > growing from about $180K to about $70 million by 2003. > > The VP then pleaded with the analysts in attendance NOT to view WIND as a DSL > company. DSL is only an example of a market segment WIND owns on the early end > explosive growth, just like a lily pond. > > 4. WRS Networks, which gets credit ONLY for vertical solutions that lie on top > WIND's basic platform solution, Tornado/VxWorks, expects to grow to 50% of > total company business quickly with sustained growth over 100% annually. > Telecommunication and data communications (Network's domain) currently > represents about 50% of WIND's $350 in revenues, but the amount credited to > the new unit, with new verticals, is much less, I would guess around $40 > million. Dave Frazer, the General Manager, clearly bases his expectations on a > number of market segments considerably larger than the DSL example (the > vertical portion of which he owns). > > These include: > (a) A network storage device that uses the Intelligent RAID building blocks > jointly developed by WIND and Intel and is based on Linux. > (b) InfiniBand use of Intel's IOPs each of which pay a significant royalty to > WIND. > (c) Intelligent LAN (iLAN) NIC's being jointly developed with Intel to enable > servers and workstations to offload TCP/IP, felt to be absolutely necessary to > access fast LANs at wire speed without affecting performance of the CPU. > Recall that Intel owns about 50% of the NIC business, and has the market > weight to push iLAN to prominence just like they are doing with RAMBUS. > (d) A vertical, shrink-wrapped software market on top of iLANs to sell VPN, > VoIP, firewalls, security, encryption, compression, switches, routers, etc. > The latter two can be developed by plugging in Intel's IXP 1200 into an iLAN. > (e) Tornados for DSL, Cable Modems and Set Top Boxes to be available soon. > (f) Tornado for Managed Switches. In particular, broadband optical switches is > booming, and is positively huge. I suspect they would have preferred to > present the Broadband Optical Switch lily pond, but they haven't gathered up > all the requisite data. > (g) And we didn't even get to WIND's reference design for IXA, which is > Intel's new initiative for commoditizing the network equipment space...