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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Travis W. Clark who wrote (2591)	6/20/2000 8:08:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

Travis, Steve is our residing guru on European telecom companies. I really do not know much about FTHL. Looking at most recent results, they are not making money and may have to write off some major assets. I believe that the market they operate in will be vibrant over the next five years, but you need to do a detailed balance sheet analysis (I note they have a cool $billion in cash, but do not know what of that was the debt they took on and how many shares will that convert to) to see if they have enough cash on hand to survive. They are converting some debt (to equity, I presume) which will make more shares available. Technically speaking, the recent bounce looks like a DCB and if we go back down, there is, IMHO, a great probability that the recent lows will be matched and even exceeded. There must be something positive that attracts you to this issue, can you elaborate on theses aspects? A rough estimate of their annual sales "capabilities" or capacity, is $100 MM or so, maybe as high as $250 MM (the most recent quarter had a lot of "write offs" of future contracts), to increase these sales they will have to put in place a lot of additional capacity, $1 B is not much to do that with. Zeev