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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pompsander who wrote (45321)	6/20/2000 7:07:00 PM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

Pomp, Dave: I for one did not expect the price delta (in the real world) to shrink this much until a long time from now. I wonder how this will translate at other manufacturers. Me neither. Cool, ain't it! <G> Dave

To: pompsander who wrote (45321)	6/20/2000 8:39:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Respond to of 93625

pompsander: It will be interesting to try and get some better data on RDRAM production. Both Intel and RMBS have commented on Jan-Mar production of RDRAM of 6-7M chips. Assuming 16 chips for 256 MB, it works out to 450,000 systems per quarter. I can't comment on Dell but Compaq is about 15% of total computer marketshare or about 67,000 systems per quarter or less than 5000 RDRAM enabled systems should have been sold by Compaq in one week. I have checked Compaq's largest distributor who sells over $30 B in computer products per year and I assume is somewhere between 5-10% of all Compaq sales conservatively. They have the following RDRAM based systems in stock or on order in next two week period. SP750 and AP550 Workstations using 840 chipset 545 AP250 Workstations using 820 chipset 461 Total system using RDRAM 1006 Assuming this distributor is 10% of total Compaq sales and a two week supply of product is on hand, Compaq's marketshare of 15% and this distributor inventory are close enough in line to assume that total RDRAM system sales of 450K per quarter are about right. The total worldwide marketshare for CPU are about 30 M units per quarter RDRAM has captured about a 1.7% market share of this marketplace. Please don't blast me for this low number it is as close as I can best as I can calculate. All other Compaq systems, espically the popular Deskpro lineup, do not use RDRAM and numbers of systems in stock or on order per day by this distributor are 5-10 times higher than these limited number of RDRAM based systems that exist on there online system. This comfirms IMO RDRAM based systems are less than 5% at this timeframe by any accurate measurement one can devise. Don't look for miracles with RMBS's earnings announcement in July. Earnings are strongly derived form this widely published number of 6-7 M RDRAM chips in Jan-Mar. IMO it will be "buy on antisapation, sell on news" for RMBS next earnings announcement in July just like in APR. john