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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (35507)	6/21/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

http://www.geocities.com/gottfried/SEMIbacklog.gif Or did you have something different in mind? Gottfried I added that one to my list of your charts on my semilink page Gottfried pw2.netcom.com While looking at the backlog vs time, I was wondering how something like Price-to-sales would look plotted below this graph but with the same x-axis? or as a new graph with one y-axis as backlog and the other listed as Price-to-sales for some of the companies you follow (AMAT might be the best). Perhaps plot against price first then price to sales if the sales numbers are available. If not, maybe make a new variable "AMAT price divided by industry sales"? Interesting how AMAT price goes relatively flat when orders drop (it may lose 50% or so...) but really goes up when orders are growing and backlog is growing (seen when I put one chart above the other.) Top geocities.com Bottom geocities.com

To: Gottfried who wrote (35507)	6/21/2000 11:48:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

G., My "chart request" was mostly a tongue-in-cheek gibe for those who strive diligently to find new ways to misunderstand the Book to Bill report. Your chart, as usual, is informative and shows the true nature and strength of orders. e.g. - For the last 5 reports, the backlog alone has increased by more than the monthly total for orders at the bottom of the last cycle. Or the cumulative backlog for this upleg is approximately one years worth of orders using that same "bottom of cycle" monthly yardstick. But to give you a specific answer, no, I was not asking you to create yet another chart. I do thank you for all those that you've created in the past. Best wishes, Ian.

To: Gottfried who wrote (35507)	6/21/2000 12:24:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Mitch sent his thoughts... >Gottfried, as always, feel free to post this to SI:AMAT or trash it. I trust your editorial instincts. For those who know a little calculus, I think the recent B-to-B shows an inflection point. That's where a curve changes curvature from convex to concave (bowl-shape to dome-shape), or vice versa. That doesn't mean the slope immediately goes negative, so I don't think it's an imminent crash - the industry is still adding to backlog. In other words, I think AMAT is far from topped out. To use an automotive analogy, the Wafer Fab Equipment industry has gone from panic braking two years ago to pedal-to-the-metal acceleration now. Just because the pedal is lifting slightly from the floor doesn't mean the brakes are getting slammed again - it just means we're getting closer to an equilibrium level. Look at the trouble the Chip industry has adding capacity, and consider how much more difficult it is for WFE suppliers to ramp. That's what I think has generated the prior B-to-B disparity, and why shipments appear to have flattened. They're flat-out more so than flattened. However, I would take the inflection change as a long-lead-time indicator of an eventual slowdown, absent any other accelerating factors. The 300mm and Cu trends will likely emerge as an upshift and slam that pedal back down. When Chip companies begin canceling orders - shoving the B-to-B towards and below 1.0 - that's when I'll worry about the next top. - Mitch Cobb<