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To: Peace who wrote (75)6/21/2000 10:16:00 AM
From: Peace  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2404
 
They brought the price down to 43 on a few thousand shares and then let somebody buy 100K at 43 5/8 !!!



To: Peace who wrote (75)6/26/2000 1:30:00 PM
From: Scrapps  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2404
 
JJC offers his final words how to play the DSL cycle and turn copper wire into gold.

By James J. Cramer

Editor's note: This is the sixth and final part of a week-long series by James J. Cramer on how to make money in the stocks of companies that provide high-speed access to the Internet. Cramer's observations and conclusions are, in part, based on a recent poll of subscribers' experiences with these providers. (The poll was conducted in one of Cramer's previous columns.) Be sure to check out the introduction, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5 in the series!

The third hardware play that could have big impact when DSL is rolled out on a wide scale is Efficient Networks (Nasdaq: EFNT - news; see Part 5 of this series for the first two!). This company is a huge supplier to SBC (NYSE: SBC - news) and it makes customer-premise equipment.

Last quarter, Efficient disappointed, choosing to maximize its volume at the expense of margins. You can't do that on Wall Street unless you tell us in advance. We think that shortfall is now priced into the stock and we have been buying this stock at the 60 level thinking it could rocket once it gets the margins down. When it does, though, is anybody's guess.

The final way to play this move may be the prequalifier way. The most expensive portion of this process for a company is the dispatch of a worker to your house to figure out what to do and what can be done. Anything that can be figured out ahead of time saves fortunes. Turnstone (Nasdaq: TSTN - news) , the company NorthPoint's (Nasdaq: NPNT - news) spokesman mentioned, may be your best bet.

Turnstone develops loop-management solutions that allow local exchanges like SBC to automate and remotely manage loop testing and installation while also detecting faults within the system. It also provides a back-office automation software solution which adds a higher level of functionality to its offering.

Make no mistake about this, when we first heard of this company we thought to ourselves: this is the DIGI. But the Turnstone solution does not appear to be a technological breakthrough that could make it immune from initiatives from smart companies like Nortel (NYSE: NT - news) . (A second player, Tollgrade (Nasdaq: TLGD - news) , is also involved in this space and seems to have a spate of red-hot products.)

We want to play Turnstone, but this is one of those stocks that reminds us of the B2B era, where it can go up or down 10 points on a whisper or a slug of 1,000 shares. There is no liquidity and a retail investor has a much better handle on this stock than we do. It has earnings. It is not ridiculously expensive. It is blowing away numbers and it could dominate this sector for a couple of quarters, if not a year.

So we are there. Not big. Betting that we could get hit with an insider sale, a lockup, something that will bring this stock down. But when that happens, we will pounce. And we believe we will make money.

Finally, there are a ton of ancillary players. LSI Logic (NYSE: LSI - news) makes chips for all of these DSL offerings. Aware (Nasdaq: AWRE - news) , a company Jim Seymour has discussed a great deal, has software that gets put on Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI - news) chips that could be even bigger than it has been. Analog Devices itself has been a fabulous stock.

Many of you have suggested other plays. A brusque Andy Kessler , who was an original investor in TheStreet.com (Nasdaq: TSCM - news) and a great analyst and stock picker, suggests Advanced Fibre Communications (Nasdaq: AFCI - news) , which extends DSL past the three-mile range. Matt Jacobs loves that one too. Kessler also likes Elantec (Nasdaq: ELNT - news) and Centillium Communications (Nasdaq: CTLM - news) , two others he owns, that I know too little about, but want to pass on because Kessler is a money-ma! ker.

Matt mentioned GlobeSpan (Nasdaq: GSPN - news) and Virata (Nasdaq: VRTA - news) as pure plays, but I haven't done enough research yet to embrace them. (If you want more pure plays and suggestions, go to dslreports.com and click on the navigation bar to the left and hit up investments for more ideas.)

The bottom line: We are going to play this cycle, maybe not to the hilt, but at least to the point where we think we can get more than trading gains. I know that I have thrown a huge amount at you in this series.(Believe me, I cut out all of the great and funny anecdotes you sent me because I know that this piece is the longest I have ever done for TheStreet.com.)

I felt I owed it to you. It was your input that got me started. It was your input that led me to these names. We are going to stay in touch with these names for some time and I suspect you will find them as fixtures in my columns as long as we think the big moves are ahead. Drop me a line, of course, if you think that there is more or less to any story and I will do my best to hash it out.

Thanks again for all you did to make this survey turn copper, hopefully, into gold.

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More Quotes
and News: Advanced Fibre Communications (NasdaqNM:AFCI - news)
Analog Devices Inc (NYSE:ADI - news)
Aware Inc (NasdaqNM:AWRE - news)
Centillium Communications Inc (NasdaqNM:CTLM - news)
Efficient Networks Inc (NasdaqNM:EFNT - news)
Elantec Semiconductor Inc (NasdaqNM:ELNT - news)
GlobeSpan Inc (NasdaqNM:GSPN - news)
LSI Logic Corp (NYSE:LSI - news)
Nortel Networks Corp (NYSE:NT - news)
NorthPoint Communications Group Inc (NasdaqNM:NPNT - news)
SBC Communications Inc (NYSE:SBC - news)
TheStreet.com (NasdaqNM:TSCM - news)
Tollgrade Communications Inc (NasdaqNM:TLGD - news)
Turnstone Systems Inc (NasdaqNM:TSTN - news)
Virata Corp (NasdaqNM:VRTA - news)

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