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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blake_paterson who wrote (45370)	6/21/2000 1:06:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

blake: Wonder what this is going to do to jdaasoc's current calculation of 1.7% market penetration. Willimette will be poised where PIII Xeon processor is right now. Of my assumption of 1.7% RDRAM, is was based on about 1/3 of the total RDRAM enabled computers coming form the Compaq SP750 series that uses XEON processor or about 0.5%. The remaining 2/3 market share for RDRAM enabled computers was equally split between PIII computers with 840 chipset and 820 chipset computers. Granted the 1.7% is quite low but when you put 256 MB SDRAM and RDRAM business computer side by side there is $200-300 differential( $200 for PC600, $300 for PC800) on an ASP of $1,400 for SDRAM systems, it is wide gap for almost identical performance. IBM, Compaq and HP seem to be rallying their business computing lineup solely around 815e with integreted LAN adapter and built-in business graphics. This was the market seqment Intel stated that RDRAM would conquer in their roadmap for 2000 produced in 1999. Please make note that the combined problem of chip capacity shortage for next 3 years and unrelenting pressure on ASP's for computers worldwide make implimentation of RDRAM in mass markets difficult. Just one year ago, it looked like there was a chip oversupply and memory fabs could easily be switched to RDRAM from SDRAM. RMBS potential is no longer primarily determined by RDRAM sales but how much a royalty percentage and for how long a time frame they can sign licensing agreements with reamining 6 DRAM companies. john