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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26623)	6/21/2000 8:47:00 PM
From: limtex	Respond to of 54805

MB - What makes you think a Nokia licensing deal with Qualcomm is going to come in the next couple of months? Yes precisely but maybe not in the way we thought. First they close the European market to the Q by simple regulatory techniques. Second they emasculate the Q's markets by their excellent salesmanship which is clearly much more effective than that of US companies ( hmmm I wonder why?) Third they get a tame and suppliant operator to buy into local cdma operators and inject GSM and eject any hint of cdma2000 or 1XRT. After all that is done NOK comes along and buys the happless Q and all its IPR for a song after its stock price and its core markets have been disembowelled. QED. Best regards, L

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26623)	6/21/2000 9:50:00 PM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, besides the point that Q needs the deal at this moment more then Nokia does, what makes you think a deal is years away. I think by the end of the year either Nokia will have come out with a workable CDMA phone or they will have made a deal. CDMA unit sales will top 100mm for Q's fiscal 2001 starting in OCT. That is simply too big a market for Nokia not to be a part of. Also if NOKIA were to strike a deal today with Q it could be up to a year before they come out with a CDMA phone. It's been 16 months since Erickson settled and still no phone, it's been 8 months since Kyocera became a very close Q ally and still no phone. For whatever reason it seems to take an awful long time to come out with a CDMA phone even with Q helping all the way, so everyday that goes by puts NOKIA further in the 1X hole. There's too much at stake for this not to be settled one way or the other, for both companies. Another thing that needs to be settled by Q management is what will the actuall net royalty be on WCDMA, this issue is hanging over Q's head like a zero visibility fog. Simply stating over and over again that they will get the same royalty rate across the board isn't cutting it anymore. Investors need to know how much IP they need to pay for(if any) inorder to produce DS ASICS. This is especially important since it appears that the majority of CDMA will be of the DS flavor. Unless we get a major GSMer to defect or the EU opens up the standards to 1X as Mark Roberts has been hinting but so far neither of those looks immenent. 100- Hoping one of our other non gorilla favorites starts growing big hairy feet soon, just in case.