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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54871)	6/21/2000 7:22:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

I do have one gripe with this Fed. I've seen several interveiws with Federal Reserve Governors lately. These guys use all kinds of complicated computer models to decide what to do which is fine. But these guys were basically saying we don't like to trust our models. We like to see the anecdotal evidence. The problem with the anecdotal approach,like in trading, is where traders don't follow their own indicators and systems and instead fall back on their own intution (fear and greed) emotions when their indicators and systems don't confirm their feelings. The result is they lose their ass. I would hate to see this Fed lose their ass based on this same concept. Gotta unemotionally go with the economic data because at least thats statistically derived from something and you know the standard deviations/inherent possible error ranges in the data. But with anecdotal evidence and wishy washy feelings--that will get you in trouble most of the time. There is a saying I like and it goes like this, "In God we trust....all others must use data".

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (54871)	6/21/2000 8:14:00 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, <i merely cited the additional effect of treasury buybacks - they effectively amount to permanent reserve additions.> I don't think that this is true. Treasury does not create the money for the buybacks out of thin air -- like the Fed does when it adds money reserves by buying bills. The money the Treasury uses for buybacks are US taxpayers' dollars, which used to sit in our bank accounts, before we were obliged to send it to the Treasury's bank account. There is no net addition of money when Treasury does buybacks. Buybacks are exactly equivalent to issuing fewer Government bonds to replace expiring ones during the periodic Treasury auctions. By the way, I am curious to know what you propose to do with the surplus in lieu of reducing the public debt? Kyros