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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Charles R who wrote (117085)6/22/2000 2:56:00 AM
From: tejek  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1579256
 
Like I was saying, it would be a nice time to have a good technical guy on the thread who can call the short term moves.

Chuck,

I don't think we need "a good technical guy" to call the next move....AMD does look ready to make its next move up. The lowered volume signifies that the weak hands/sellers are pretty much out of the stock. Today it had a new closing high. Should it have a new high this week, I think the next leg up has a good shot at making it.

However that does not mean that its assured....and that's the problem with TA. It can't anticipate a reason for the Naz tanking or a bad PC sales report for May or any number things that could easily effect the stock's price.

Currently, one problem that may throw a wrench into AMD's current attempt to move up, is that it is trading on the high side of its trading range and is seriously overbought which is a bearish sign. Therefore if this next attempt to move up fails...AMD will pull back one more time, probably to the mid 80's, regroup and try the runup again closer to earnings. Personally I think that its this latter run that will be the successful one and get us into the hundreds. But who wants to hear it....I suggested a while back that AMD would most likely fall back to the low 70's and people understandably did not want to hear it....btw it did fall back.

So, anybody who knows anything about TA knows what an inexact science it is and how quickly a lynching mob can be formed if you are wrong.

ted



To: Charles R who wrote (117085)6/22/2000 3:37:00 AM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1579256
 
Charles

One other comment wrt my TA discussion, the new high I am hoping for this week should be on very strong volume...more than 6 million. Normal daily volume is around 4.5 million. We need to stay above that for the next few days as a show of confidence....high volume is needed to get into the 100's.

And its my opinion that for this stock to really move up, next year's earnings forcast has to be raised above this year's.....right now its running $.50 below.

ted