To: DRT who wrote (523 ) 6/23/2000 6:30:00 AM From: Len Hynes Respond to of 601
Hi DRT; Here is some interesting insights into what's happening in the oil market from LeMetropoleCafe.com :The Latest Cafe oil news: Subject: Earlybird Report EIA data released yesterday shows refiners cranked up the crude stills and made more gasoline and jet fuel. In doing so, the both imported more crude oil and drew down crude oil stocks 4.6 million to 295.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories held at the same level, indicating that the additional production was exactly the amount necessary to meet current demand at current pricing. Thus, the increased production will not cause prices to decrease. However, spot prices for imported gasoline ran a bit lower, which suggests there may be a bit of competition out there. Despite stories that the Gov sold SPR crude oil, their data shows no change in inventories. OPEC's move to increase production will probably have little effect on the market unless they simultaneously offer the crude oil at significantly lower prices and undercut the market to start a downward trend. -- Seems unlikely that they would do that. >From one of your Cafe members: For any of you who are players of Bridge you will know that the bidding tells your partner about what cards you have in your hand. The bid of 708,000 BPD from OPEC is definitely a ONE, NO TRUMP!...They have no winning suits, they have no aces...they have no more capacity. They didn't even manage to scrape together the psychologically important 750,000 BPD! The market knew the rise had to be at least 500,000 BPD because this was a done deal under the previously announced price band system, there were rumors of 1 million BPD being proposed by Saudi...if they had split the difference at exactly 750,000 BPD perhaps they could have convinced the market that they were doing the OPEC equivalent of the Federal Reserve by progressively increasing production...but no, they came with 708,000 BPD!! Yesterday OPEC got the contract with their bid of ONE, NO TRUMP and didn't have enough points in their hand to win a single trick...after the announcement oil prices went up $0.7 per barrel and prices are up again this morning. Ali Rodriguez and Rilwanu Lukman both said today that maybe output will have to be raised again later this year...that was a vain attempt to change their bid to a THREE, NO TRUMP...TOO, LATE GUYS! We now know what cards you have in your hand. This market is now a free market of supply and demand and demand is outstripping supply. There is only one way forward...expand capacity through more drilling, that will take time so oil and gas prices are going to go higher and stay high. The US government is trying to put a positive spin on the "impending crisis". Richardson said..."I am pleased with this figure and hopefully, with additional oil from non-OPEC countries that might be announced soon, that this will be good news for the American consumer," he added. "We think it's a positive step toward bringing stability to oil markets, to world economic growth," Richardson said. U.S. gasoline prices, which have roared to record levels in recent weeks, should also eventually decline on the extra oil in world markets, he said. HELLO!...doesn't Richardson have access to the internet to check on crude oil prices?...sorry, Bill, but you need to wake up and smell the coffee...this problem ain't going away that quickly! It took 14 years to get into this mess by having a holiday on cheap energy...and Murphy's Law (not Bill Murphy, another one!) dictates that the mess floats to the surface just before elections. High oil and gas prices are here to stay, as I have said before, we need to stop the dubious accounting practice of excluding "volatile food and energy prices" from the inflation watch...this is real CORE inflation...anybody know of a good hedge against inflation?..what about GOLD?? <A HREF="http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com/entrance.cfm">Le Metropole Cafe</A> All the best, Bill Murphy Le Patron www.LeMetropoleCafe.com