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To: jim kelley who wrote (45507)	6/22/2000 10:51:00 AM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Jim, Don't care about DDR this year. No one needs it. Scumbria

To: jim kelley who wrote (45507)	6/22/2000 11:29:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 93625

Supply Side of the Equation Excerpts from a M Lynch report on AMAT (courtesy Fred Levine on AMAT thread) <<Looking forward, Applied also increased its projection from 46% to 53% for fab equipment sales growth in 2000 and over 40% in 2001. Applied also guided that the number of units of equipment shipped is expected to double from the fiscal first quarter to the fiscal third quarter. The upside in revenues is being driven by growing visibility into the plans of a broad base of semiconductor companies for increased capital spending in 2000. Applied has identified 13 new fabs in 2000 and 16 new fabs in 2001. Of the 16 new fabs in 2001, 7 are targeted to be 300 mm. New orders driven by advanced technology and capacity; Copper and 300 mm accelerate....62% of the orders in the most recent quarter were for 0.18 micron and below....The company has shipped over 30 300 mm systems and expects stronger orders in the second half of 2000. Applied is also beginning to see the move to Cu from R&D to production as six customers have ordered all three components of the Cu interconnect module (barrier/seed, Cu plating, Cu CMP) for evaluation and R&D. This growth has accelerated since the beginning of the current quarter.....Applied's orders essentially mirror the capital spending by region around the world. Orders in the last quarter were geographically diverse, with Taiwan leading the pack at 25% of new orders; North America was 25%, Japan 15%, Europe 14%, Asia-Pacific 11%, and Korea 10%. Taiwan and Europe were particularly above expectations. In the current quarter, Japan is starting to tick up as well. DRAM orders as a percentage of sales decreased to 19% last quarter from 24% previously. THE COMPANY'S BOTTOMS UP DRAM MARKET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MARKET COMING INTO SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2000 AND ENTERING AN UNDER CAPACITY MODE BY THE END OF THE YEAR>> (my emphases) BP