To: StockHawk who wrote (26652 ) 6/22/2000 12:33:00 PM From: gdichaz Respond to of 54805
StockHawk: Thanks. And that is the voice advantage. Where Nokia is in deep trouble right now, repeat, right now is in data. This will becomes especially clear in the US with Sprint and Verizon. Many of you know that the Qualcomm chips and software for 1X are available now for use in phones for broad testing which will be undertaken not only in Korea and Japan shortly, but even in Philadelphia by Verizon next month. Perhaps looking at the way the data installations will happen will show the depth of Nokia's problem and the need for action by Nokia asap. The way 1X works is that the operators double voice capacity and enhance data as soon as the infrastructure and phones permit. The usual system is to install the infrastructure and then sell the phones. But in this case the reverse is likely or at a minimum getting the 1X capable phones out has a high priority. That is because as difficult as the infrastructure installation may be in fine tuning the software, the hardware changes are simple, straightforward and available. So the bottleneck will be the phones. The operator can only double its voice capability to the extent that 1X capable phones are in use on its network. Since those phones are completely backward compatible, there is no downside to getting the phones out now or asap. The phones can be used prior to the necessary infrastructure upgrade and the benefit to the operator comes when those phones are used as 1X. The advantages to the operators of using 1X are such (doubling voice capacity and enhancing data at low cost) that Dr J has called 1X a "no brainer", and Dr J prefers understatement and caution. Hope this is helpful in understanding why Nokia must move quickly or suffer a significant loss of sales to Verizon and Sprint. Note: It is already very late for Nokia since ordinarily it takes about a year to work out the bugs and especially the associated software on a new phone. If Nokia buys the Q's chips and the Q's associated software, and improves relationships with the Q so that Qualcomm provides handholding and troubleshooting, that time is less, but even so it is significant. So even though the commercial operation of 1X will not begin in the US until late this year and not be in full swing until the first half of next year, the time for Nokia to act is now, or simply be an also ran trying to displace 1X capable phones from other suppliers already provided by Verizon and Sprint. Best. Cha2