Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (1365)	6/24/2000 11:24:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 2850

Hi John: I have some data on taxes and the Dow & S&P which I?ll post on the other thread (plus I left the data file in the office). On AT&T while it may not be timely since it has sold off I remain neutral to bearish on the stock for the next year or two. Things can change between now and then but here are my reasons. The cable purchases. This is great in theory for the last mile and to avoid the RBOC?s access fees as well as the bandwidth but there are a few negatives. One, Acquisition and integrations of operations is always an issue. The larger the acquisition the more difficult the process. Not every acquirer is as good as CSCO or C. So the jury is still out here and T has more difficulty due to government regulations. It is never easy to integrate an acquisition. The RBOC?s and DSL. DSL is coming late to the game (hey I invested in Amati way back when, glad TI bought them out) and many question whether it will be the last mile solution (its too early to judge Terabeam, although we realize technology can move quickly). The RBOC?s have been slow to roll out DSL due to costs. However one of the cost items was part of government regulations where the RBOC would have to allow others DSL providers access to their equipment (I believe @ cost). My understanding is this regulation changed either May 1st or June 1st and I expect the RBOC?s to start aggressively rolling out DSL to compete with cable. Now it is way to early to tell which will be the best solution and win the consumer pocketbook but when there is a choice margins shrink. So I believe T is going to have some pretty good competition here. I believe right now cable has a 4 to 1 subscriber advantage (both small levels in US) and while both will grow in the coming years (probably both will be on the hockey stick trajectory later this year provided we are not headed to a recession) over the next 3 I would pick DSL as the higher grower. Just my feel with the entrenched RBOC?s not wanting to lose customers. They should start to aggressively fight to keep the ones they want. Wireless. Right now T generates the most $ / subscriber but will this last? I wonder how much of T?s subscriber growth is internal vs. acquisition. I?ve read CDMA sales have now equaled (might have surpassed) TDMA phone sales (not good for NOK either). From what I?ve read CDMA is the better technology (Gilder and while I disagree with some of his comments I agree here but can be wrong) and T?s next generation technology to compete with CDMA is still a year or two away (not to mention the cost to upgrade the system). So I feel T?s wireless is about to peak & level off (whether T can make the necessary changes to grow it again remains to be seen). I?d take Sprint?s FON (someone will scoop it up) with the CDMA standard at this point in time. Normal long distance. As we can see from yesterday, T continues to have problems increasing revenue / market share in its basic business. The growth in wireless has overshadowed the drop in this business. I use T but if my rates are now going up I?m going to check out Sprint or MCI. This is still the cash cow but it continues its downtrend. Armstrong may be a great leader but the market is changing fast and T is running hard just to stay in place. T has to invest a lot more $$?s just to keep up never mind be the leader again. I?d just invest elsewhere in the telecommunications sector. I believe in technology and while there will be some winners if (when) we have a recession next year the three sectors to focus on if you need to be invested in stocks would be storage, telecommunications and energy (I?m sure there are others). But as much as I like telecommunications valuation is again an issue. As we just saw with CSCO even the kings can take a pretty good haircut. Have a great weekend. Tim PS ? thanks for the energy stocks. I do think we are about to peak in gasoline ($1.80 in CT for 87% grade) but natural gas is a different story. I think the supply / demand will be out of balance for a while. We may be double a year ago but once the cold weather hits and demand skyrockets the company stocks will run higher (ng will be like gasoline is now). I don?t know if now is the time or late summer to invest. If we have a further spike due to how weather the time would be now since the supply would be depleted even more going into the peak season.