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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (35535)	6/22/2000 2:03:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Katherine, I believe that it's possible we'll see less volatility due to the increasing use of chips in a much broader sector of the economy. i.e. - the growth rate will be a little more constant in the future than it has been in the past. Whether or not that prediction will come to pass in this particular cycle is beyond my power to guess. FWIW, Ian.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (35535)	7/2/2000 8:05:25 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

This is so "New Economy"ish that I hate to even suggest it. However those of us who've watched this industry (I have been invested in it for some 15 years) can uncomfortably recall how PC driven this business was. With the now accepted buildout of the internet ( a once in a generational event ) featuring Sonet's and MAN's in the future.Add to this the next build out of Wireless everything and the Beaming of Ka Band satelites/internet. Is it somewhat resonable to expect that a plateauing of orders (at industry max capacity) might well be considered a maturity evolution of an industry. Face it this industry now has several growth drivers vs. only the PC Cycle. This is not to say that the business will have ups and downs.That would be naive.But I propose that the future diversity of production demands and technology improvements might well yield this industry into the limelight of generally more stable and less cyclical. This transition could well diminish the unending micro tunings of business just flat out being great as it is incorrectly interpreted by the natural gyrations of 1/4 ly deliveries of a product that costs millions - oh yes and now can't be called profit until it is cash. HEHEHE In days of old when cars were for the affluent - there sales/deliveries were called cyclicle.Now that we all use them and need them,the car industry is called old world economy. Is it not natural for the semiconductor industry to transition to an industry that becomes stable with its overall cycles to be sure.Wouldn't it be safe to say we all use computers at home and at work.Internet,wireless and more. It is possible that this up and down industry with new growth drivers now and in the future,could be considered a more stable industry.If that natural transition occurs, I wonder what PE multiple would be accorded it. Food for thought over the long view. Bob