To: James Clarke who wrote (10755 ) 6/24/2000 12:48:00 AM From: Paul Senior Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78516
Jim, regarding your purchases, potential purchases. I've bought many of the stocks on your list. I still have them, and like you, I have had an up/down ride with some of them. Couple of things I would like to point out. First I notice the predominant category of the stocks you/we are looking at consist of those slow-growing, heartland industrial and downtrodden stocks in cyclical businesses. As value investors, we (I'll presume myself into this class) have to go where the values are, yet at some at some point - I don't know where it is, but I myself may be near it - I suggest one ought to limit the risk of committing so much of one's funds to any particular category. (That would be imo - and I could very well be wrong.) Secondly, it seems to me the stocks you list are the stocks you follow and have mentioned before. This suggests you are averaging down, rather than expanding the net to catch other value stocks. Concentrating, I guess, is what people who do in-depth research do. Whereas, for example with me, I have a position in CMH and have added to it as it's dropped, but now I've stopped. As fine a company as CMH is, I've taken as much as I will (note: -g- subject to reassessment). You may be comfortable in determining that the stocks you are adding to now are as good bets to capture a short term move, or even a long term move as anything else- but I would rather diversify with my investable funds. Here are a few other stocks I'm interested in: Whirlpool (WHR), some downside risk still, but upside potential is there too. MarineMax (HZO)--- A boat dealer consolidator with lots of debt and insider sales and very possibly the last thing anybody wants going into a recession. Sensible people should probably (95%) avoid HZO. SEMI - while it trades higher than I normally would consider buying, the alleged continuance of the good business demand for semiconductor components implies that SEMI's business (they are primarily a distributor) will continue to be very good also. DNB - somewhere around here (30) is an okay place to start or add to positions. If Mr. Buffett bought at about 25-26 (just guessing here-- I defer to Buffett followers who might know prices where he bought), then potential for DNB stock at 30 is still pretty good, especially as we approach spinoff. To see 26 again would be a gift imo (if there were no adverse news announcements). SKS - SAKS. It's at lows (like many retailers), trying to resolve its problems, with lots of insider buying. An alternative, imo, to adding to ANF. EW Scripps A (SSP)- I'm monitoring this one still (ref: Twister's discussion on Buffettology thread) jmo, Paul. Jim, thanks for mentioning PCAR. I forgot about them- I'll relook once more. Article in latest Business Week about PCAR for anyone who's interested.