Rambus...
tekboy/Ares@seller'sremorseisjustasbadasbuyer'sremorse.com
Yeah, tell me about it.
Last year, from Spring to Fall, I was the main proponent on THIS thread for Rambus, while Unclewest was Da Man on the Rambus thread.
I bailed on Rambus for the reasons I cited at the end of last September, but mainly because:
1. It had only gotten a toehold at crossing the chasm, and was not in a tornado,
2. It was unclear that Intel could force the Memory manufacturers to commit to DRDRAM, and
3. I felt Qualcomm had better short-term and long-term growth/safety ratio.
4. But truthfully, the biggest reason was that in closely following the Intel and Rambus boards, reading the "white" papers at Dell and Samsung, etc., for the life of me, I could not distinguish or take a firm position for or against the Rambus technology. IOWs, I couldn't tell who was likely to be right, the Rambus technical advocates, or the technical Fudsters. I just couldn't figure it out.
Since then, DRDRAM is now being produced by a few manufacturers, and is available in workstations, and some high-end PCs. This represents less than 10% of the DRAM market at present. We have a chasm crossed, and are into the bowling alley, but still no visible tornado, AFAIK. Some of the biggest memory manufacturers, like Micron, are not producing DRDRAM.
Rambus, with bravado and out of nowhere, decides to claim patent rights to all DRAM varieties (SDRAM, DDR, DRDRAM), and actually connects with a sucker punch. So the stock skyrockets.
Yes, a seller's remorse is bitter. But in looking at my reasons above to sell, I think they were valid and reasonable for me. So my bitterness isn't really too bad.
Is Rambus a buy now?
Well, last summer, I recall that it was projected that by 2003 or 2004, Rambus would have most of the PC memory market, and that Unclewest had figured that would eventually be worth $600-1200/share. As I type this, Rambus is at a pre-split adjusted $480/share.................AND Direct RDRAM isn't IN THE TORNADO YET!
I don't pretend that the above numbers are pinpoint accurate. I'm just saying that for me, I think Rambus is relatively overpriced right now.
My thoughts:
1. Over the long haul, Qualcomm and wireless remains a better play, IMHO, than PC memory.
2. Rambus is not a buy for me, at this time. Moreover, I don't have any dry powder anyway, and I'm not about to sell JDSU, GMST, EMC, NTAP, QCOM, INTC or even SNDK. Even SNDK's flash memory is in a tornado, at least.
The real question is this: investing in Rambus last year was investing, like in Gmst, in a gorilla candidate with a future. It was a gamble. Should we be waiting for the tornado to invest? We've discussed this many times, and I'm not making a recommendation now. I'm just pointing out that by the time Rambus's products are in a tornado, it'll probably be really overpriced. The market sure has anticipated THIS forthcoming tornado!
I'd like to thank those who responded to the Nokia post from last night. And I like to ask the Thread what they think of this post, the reasons to sell, and blah, blah, blah. Not looking for emotional support here, just would appreciate your perspectives.
And congrats to the "longtime" longs for Rambus. I think you had to have faith, because the "truth" was hard for me to find. I am truly pleased for the longtimers. <ggg>
Apollo |
